Concurrent response of tree growth and grain productivity to climate change: A case study from climatic transition zone in central China

Unstable State of Hydrologic Regime and Grain Yields in Northern Kazakhstan Estimated with Tree-Ring Proxies

“…The RMSE estimates the normally distributed errors, which once again points to the high quality of the reconstructions. The explained variance of the SKO grain yields in our model (47%) is very similar to other tree ring calibrated models from the forest steppe environments of South Siberia and northern China [27,28], although tree ring models from extremely dry environments like the arid land of North Africa may have 74% of explained variance for precipitation influencing the wheat yields [24]. This indicates the high potential of tree-ring proxies for modeling crop yields in the breadbaskets of Inner Eurasia, where tree-ring networks are available [48].…”

“…The mixed climatic signal retained by both temperature and precipitation variations is important for highlighting the matching impact of soil moisture on the pine tree ring proxies and grain crops. The tree rings and grain crops from other regions of Inner Eurasia showed similar correlation patterns with the climate [26][27][28].…”

“…Agriculture 2024, 14, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 of 17 precipitation variations is important for highlighting the matching impact of soil moisture on the pine tree ring proxies and grain crops. The tree rings and grain crops from other regions of Inner Eurasia showed similar correlation patterns with the climate [26][27][28]. The climate response of the grain group related to the phenology of spring wheat, barley, and oats in SKO, although these correlations are not detailed, due to the lack of individual crop statistics and the low-resolution monthly climate data that we used.…”

“…In dendrochronology, the relationship between the hydrologic regime (specifically droughts) and crop yields has been recognized from the very early association of tree ring growth with the climate [21,22]. Surprisingly, up to now there are very few well-calibrated reconstruction models for the yields of corn, rye, and wheat from Central America, North Africa, Fennoscandia, South Siberia, and China [23][24][25][26][27][28].…”