Condition and Prospects of Development of Vaccines for Specific Prevention of Enterovirus (Nonpolio) Infection

Яговкин, Э. А.; Онищенко, Г. Г.; Попова, А. Ю.; Ежлова, Е. Б.; Мельникова, А. А.; Соловьев, М Ю; Ковалев, Е. В.; Твердохлебова, Т И; Хмелевская, Г. В.; Девтерова, Л. В.; Вачаев, Б. Ф.; Юрьева, И. Л.

doi:10.31631/2073-3046-2016-15-4-74-82

“…Во всем мире на сегодняшний день программа массовой иммунизации населения против ЭВС с экзантемой не проводится. Вакцинопрофилактика ЭВС с экзан темой по эпидемическим показаниям осуществля ется только на территории Китая [47].…”

Section: вакцинопрофилактикаunclassified

Enterovirus vesicular stomatitis with exanthema: Epidemiological Features and Vaccination

Sytaya

¹

,

Mindlina

²

2022

Epidemiology and Vaccinal Prevention

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Relevance. Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a disease that is extremely relevant for the Russian Federation. According to modern data, epidemic outbreaks of severe course involving a large number of children are registered in the Russian Federation. At the same time, the mortality rate varies worldwide and can range from 6.46 to 51.00 per 100 thousand population. In addition, the fact that the Russian Federation borders with East and Southeast Asia annually increases the risk of HFMD entering the territory of Russia. Every year, the disease causes more than 2 million hospitalizations in Asia. Aims. According to the literature, to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in the Russian Federation and the world, as well as the prospects for vaccination of this infection. To achieve this goal, open sources hosted in the electronic databases PubMed, Medline and e-Library were used. Publications on enterovirus infection for the period from 2014 to 2022 are analyzed. The WHO (Western Pacific Region) statistics on HFMD were also used. Results. According to the modern literature, HFMD is the most common clinical form of enterovirus infection, which is characterized by high heterogeneity of pathogens. Over the past few years, the incidence of enterovirus infection in many subjects of the Russian Federation has been characterized by an upward trend. The most unfavorable epidemic situation in the Russian Federation is observed on the territory of the Far Eastern Federal District, where the largest number of cases of enterovirus infection is registered. In 2018, 1058 cases of enterovirus infection were detected in the Sakhalin region (222.6 cases per 100 thousand). The structure of enterovirus infection in the Russian Federation is dominated by exanthemic forms, herpangina and gastroenteritis. It is necessary to consider the introduction of vaccination of the child population, since rises in the incidence of enterovirus infection in various regions are registered annually on the territory of the Russian Federation. Vaccines against EV-A71 are already being used in China for epidemic indications. The active circulation of HFMD in the Asia-Pacific region may affect the spread of enterovirus infection in the territory of the Russian Federation, as the risk of imported cases of infection and the formation of epidemic foci of group morbidity increases.

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“…Мировой и российский опыт, объем накопленных знаний ставят вопросы научного и рационального использования их для эффективного воздействия на эпидемический процесс. Значимость ЭВнИ определяется высокой интенсивностью, повсеместным распространением, высокой долей вспышечной заболеваемости, контагиозностью и летальностью [5][6][7], высокой устойчивостью неполиомиелитных энтеровирусов (НПЭВ) во внешней среде [8], отсутствием средств специфической профилактики [9,10]. В Российской Федерации эпидемиологический надзор за ЭВнИ регламентируется санитарными правилами «Профилактика энтеровирусной (неполио) инфекции» 2 и методическими указаниями «Эпидемиологический надзор и профилактика энтеровирусной (неполио) инфекции» 3 .…”

unclassified

New Approaches to Assessing and Forecasting Morbidity With Enterovirus (Non-Polio) Infection in the Russian Federation Using Mathematical Models

Feldblium¹,

Akimkin²,

Alimov³

et al. 2021

Health Risk Analysis

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At present it is impossible to develop epidemiologic surveillance and control over any infection regarding studies on dynamics of morbidity, seasonality and periodicity without using mathematical modeling techniques. Our research goal was to study regularities in manifestations of epidemic process for enterovirus (non-polio) infection (EVnI) in the Russian Federation over 14 years (2006–2019) using mathematical models (linear, logarithmic, power, and exponential approximation).An optimal mathematical model was selected using three statistical parameters, namely determination coefficient, Fischer’s exact test, and standard error. Periodicity of rises and falls in morbidity was calculated with Fourier one- dimensional spectral analysis. Intra-year dynamics of morbidity with EVnI was estimated basing on monthly spread of the disease cases on the RF territory. Classic seasonal decomposition, Census I technique, was applied to analyze time series of monthly morbidity. It was determined that EVnI epidemic process was unevenly spread over years in the RF in the examined period of time (2006–2019) and there were two opposite trends in it; the first one lasted from 2006 to 2010 when morbidity was declining and the second was from 2010 to 2019 when it was growing. Having analyzed manifestations of EVnI epidemi- ologic process in long-term dynamics given its uneven spread as per years, we established that it was advisable to use mathematical models approximated as per separate time periods. Average long-term morbidity with EVnI amounted to 8.09 0/0000 in the RF in 2010–2019 with growth rate being equal to 17.7 %. Maximum value was registered in 2017 (16.32 0/0000). An unfavorable prediction for further epidemic situation development was revealed for the examined pe- riod. The epidemic process was characterized with 4-year periodicity and summer-autumn seasonality with peaks usually occurring in August and September. Rates that characterized intensity of the trends in long-term morbidity dynamics and were calculated with mathematical models differed authentically from those obtained via conventional calculations of average values (χ=11.08; d.f.=1; p=0.0009).

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“…Experience gained worldwide and in Russia as well and accumulated knowledge call for their scientific and rational use to influence the epidemic process efficiently. EVnI is a significant issue due to its high intensity, overall prevalence, high share of outbreaks, contagiousness and lethality [5,6,7], high resistance of non-polio enteroviruses (NPEV) in the environment [8], and absence of any specific prevention measures [9,10]. In the Russian Federation epidemiologic surveillance over EVnI is regulated by the Sanitary Rules "Prevention of enterovirus (non-polio) infection" 2 and methodical guidelines "Epidemiologic surveillance and prevention of enterovirus (non-polio) infection" 3 .…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

New Approaches to Assessing and Forecasting Morbidity With Enterovirus (Non-Polio) Infection in the Russian Federation Using Mathematical Models

Фельдблюм¹,

Акимкин²,

Алимов³

et al. 2021

Health Risk Analysis

2

0

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At present it is impossible to develop epidemiologic surveillance and control over any infection regarding studies on dynamics of morbidity, seasonality and periodicity without using mathematical modeling techniques. Our research goal was to study regularities in manifestations of epidemic process for enterovirus (non-polio) infection (EVnI) in the Russian Federation over 14 years (2006–2019) using mathematical models (linear, logarithmic, power, and exponential approximation).An optimal mathematical model was selected using three statistical parameters, namely determination coefficient, Fischer’s exact test, and standard error. Periodicity of rises and falls in morbidity was calculated with Fourier one- dimensional spectral analysis. Intra-year dynamics of morbidity with EVnI was estimated basing on monthly spread of the disease cases on the RF territory. Classic seasonal decomposition, Census I technique, was applied to analyze time series of monthly morbidity. It was determined that EVnI epidemic process was unevenly spread over years in the RF in the examined period of time (2006–2019) and there were two opposite trends in it; the first one lasted from 2006 to 2010 when morbidity was declining and the second was from 2010 to 2019 when it was growing. Having analyzed manifestations of EVnI epidemi- ologic process in long-term dynamics given its uneven spread as per years, we established that it was advisable to use mathematical models approximated as per separate time periods. Average long-term morbidity with EVnI amounted to 8.09 0/0000 in the RF in 2010–2019 with growth rate being equal to 17.7 %. Maximum value was registered in 2017 (16.32 0/0000). An unfavorable prediction for further epidemic situation development was revealed for the examined pe- riod. The epidemic process was characterized with 4-year periodicity and summer-autumn seasonality with peaks usually occurring in August and September. Rates that characterized intensity of the trends in long-term morbidity dynamics and were calculated with mathematical models differed authentically from those obtained via conventional calculations of average values (χ=11.08; d.f.=1; p=0.0009).

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Condition and Prospects of Development of Vaccines for Specific Prevention of Enterovirus (Nonpolio) Infection

Cited by 5 publications

References 25 publications

Enterovirus vesicular stomatitis with exanthema: Epidemiological Features and Vaccination

Enterovirus vesicular stomatitis with exanthema: Epidemiological Features and Vaccination

New Approaches to Assessing and Forecasting Morbidity With Enterovirus (Non-Polio) Infection in the Russian Federation Using Mathematical Models

New Approaches to Assessing and Forecasting Morbidity With Enterovirus (Non-Polio) Infection in the Russian Federation Using Mathematical Models

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