Cone model-based SEP event calculations for applications to multipoint observations

Luhmann, J. G.; Ledvina, S. A.; Odstrčil, D.; Owens, M. J.; Zhao, Xue; Liu, Yang; Riley, Pete

doi:10.1016/j.asr.2010.03.011

Cited by 67 publications

(71 citation statements)

References 60 publications

(91 reference statements)

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“…However, the new solar wind yields, at the beginning of the event, smaller values due to the less compressed plasma (Pomoell & Vainio 2012). The large values of VR at the beginning of the event (the two-three first points, r < 6 R ) are mainly due to two facts: (1) the solar wind is still accelerating, and hence v r (u) is small, and (2) the fact that at these distances the shock has not yet detached from the actual compressed material forming the CME ejecta, a phenomenon found in other simulation studies as well (Manchester et al 2008;Luhmann et al 2010;Rodríguez-Gasén et al 2011). …”

Section: Evolution Of the Plasma Parameters At The Cobpointmentioning

confidence: 75%

“…This is because usually, contrary to what is depicted in theoretical cartoons, there is no clear plateau (or it is very small) indicating the downstream (post-shock) region from which the peak value can be identified. As Luhmann et al (2010) stated: ''(. .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This is still rather unaffordable due to the amount of computational resources needed for a 3D MHD model. Most of the currently available 3D MHD models applied to real SEP events up to 1 AU use a coarser resolution (e.g., Luhmann et al 2010;Shen et al 2011). For instance, Figure 10 of Shen et al (2011) shows a 3D simulation of the shock associated with the 2000 April 4 event, for which the simulated plasma jumps at the shock are not captured with enough resolution to be used in conjunction with the proton transport model, since we are seeking a relation between the source of particles at the shock and the plasma jumps.…”

Section: Modelling the Solar Wind And The Ip Shockmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Various methodologies and different plasma variables have been used by several authors aiming at achieving a proper determination of the strength of the shock (e.g., Lario et al 1998;Manchester et al 2005;Luhmann et al 2010;Rodríguez-Gasén et al 2011;Rouillard et al 2011). Unfortunately, even in the absence of shocks, the IP medium is never uniform and the location where to evaluate the values of the plasma variables and compute the jump conditions is not an easy task.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One way of circumventing this problem, as adopted here (see also Aran et al 2007;Luhmann et al 2010;Rodrìguez-Gasén et al 2014, and references therein), is by performing magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of the IP propagation of a CMEdriven shock in order to obtain the plasma parameters at the shock front, and feeding the acquired shock parameters into a simulation describing the transport of particles from the shock to the observer.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling large solar proton events with the shock-and-particle model

Pomoell

Aran

Jacobs

et al. 2015

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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We have developed a new version of a model that combines a two-dimensional Sun-to-Earth magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the propagation of a CME-driven shock and a simulation of the transport of particles along the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) line connecting the shock front and the observer. We assume that the shock-accelerated particles are injected at the point along the shock front that intersects this IMF line, i.e. at the cobpoint. Novel features of the model are an improved solar wind model and an enhanced fully automated algorithm to extract the necessary plasma characteristics from the shock simulation. In this work, the new algorithms have been employed to simulate the 2000 April 4 and the 2006 December 13 SEP events. In addition to quantifying the performance of the new model with respect to results obtained using previous versions of the shock-and-particle model, we investigate the semi-empirical relation between the injection rate of shock-accelerated particles, Q, and the jump in speed across the shock, VR, known as the Q(VR) relation. Our results show that while the magnetic field and density compression at the shock front is markedly different than in our previous modeling, the evolution of VR remains largely similar. As a result, we confirm that a simple relation can still be established between Q and VR, which enables the computation of synthetic intensity-time profiles at any location in interplanetary space. Furthermore, the new shock extraction tool is found to yield improved results being in general more robust. These results are important not only with regard to efforts to develop coupled magnetohydrodynamic and particle simulation models, but also to improve space weather related software tools that aim to predict the peak intensities, fluences and proton intensity-time profiles of SEP events (such as the SOLPENCO tool).

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Section: Evolution Of the Plasma Parameters At The Cobpointmentioning

confidence: 75%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Modelling the Solar Wind And The Ip Shockmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Modelling large solar proton events with the shock-and-particle model

Pomoell

Aran

Jacobs

et al. 2015

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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SEPEM: A tool for statistical modeling the solar energetic particle environment

et al. 2015

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Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are a serious radiation hazard for spacecraft as well as a severe health risk to humans traveling in space. Indeed, accurate modeling of the SEP environment constitutes a priority requirement for astrophysics and solar system missions and for human exploration in space. The European Space Agency's Solar Energetic Particle Environment Modelling (SEPEM) application server is a World Wide Web interface to a complete set of cross-calibrated data ranging from 1973 to 2013 as well as new SEP engineering models and tools. Both statistical and physical modeling techniques have been included, in order to cover the environment not only at 1 AU but also in the inner heliosphere ranging from 0.2 AU to 1.6 AU using a newly developed physics-based shock-and-particle model to simulate particle flux profiles of gradual SEP events. With SEPEM, SEP peak flux and integrated fluence statistics can be studied, as well as durations of high SEP flux periods. Furthermore, effects tools are also included to allow calculation of single event upset rate and radiation doses for a variety of engineering scenarios.Charged particle radiation is one of the main issues currently being discussed in regard to sending humans on long-term interplanetary missions (e.g., return trip to Mars) [Cucinotta et al., 2010]. It is well known that the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux in the solar system is modulated by solar activity, and as a first approximation, the GCR background intensity can be said to be slowly varying and therefore predictable over short CROSBY ET AL.STATISTICAL MODELING: SEP ENVIRONMENT 406 PUBLICATIONS Space Weather

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Forecast of solar proton flux profiles for well‐connected events

Moon

Park

2014

JGR Space Physics

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We have developed a forecast model of solar proton flux profiles (> 10 MeV channel) for well-connected events. Among 136 solar proton events (SPEs) from 1986 to 2006, we select 49 well-connected ones that are all associated with single X-ray flares stronger than M1 class and start to increase within 4 h after their X-ray peak times. These events show rapid increments in proton flux. By comparing several empirical functions, we select a modified Weibull curve function to approximate a SPE flux profile. The parameters (peak flux, rise time, and decay time) of this function are determined by the relationship between X-ray flare parameters (peak flux, impulsive time, and emission measure) and SPE parameters. For 49 well-connected SPEs, the linear correlation coefficient between the predicted and the observed proton peak fluxes is 0.65 with the RMS error of 0.55 log 10 (pfu). In addition, we determine another forecast model based on flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) parameters using 22 SPEs. The used CME parameters are linear speed and angular width. As a result, we find that the linear correlation coefficient between the predicted and the observed proton peak fluxes is 0.83 with the RMS error of 0.35 log 10 (pfu). From the relationship between error of model and CME acceleration, we find that CME acceleration is an important factor for predicting proton flux profiles.

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Cone model-based SEP event calculations for applications to multipoint observations

Cited by 67 publications

References 60 publications

Modelling large solar proton events with the shock-and-particle model

Modelling large solar proton events with the shock-and-particle model

SEPEM: A tool for statistical modeling the solar energetic particle environment

Forecast of solar proton flux profiles for well‐connected events

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