Conflict and Crime: Will the Russia–Ukraine Conflict Result in the Second Rise of the Russian Mafia?

Abstract

This paper deals with the question of whether Russia will experience the second rise of the mafia akin to the experience of the 1990s during the current Russia–Ukraine conflict. It examines the necessary conditions for the rise of the mafia that were present in the 1990s, such as the absence of trust in the state, the demand for protection, and the supply of individuals willing to provide protection. The paper concludes that despite economic woes generated by Western sanctions, the conditions for the rise of the mafia are currently absent in Russia. Nevertheless, turbulent times frequently lead to an increase in organized criminal activity, which seems to be the case in Russia at this particular point in time. Furthermore, due to anti-Western rhetoric, the idea of organized crime as a foreign threat to Russia will likely continue to gain momentum.