Conflict-induced IDPs and the Spread of Conflict

Abstract

Recent scholarship has found evidence that refugee flows may inadvertently contribute to the spread of conflict across borders. Little is known, however, about the spatial diffusion of conflict within a state’s borders and what role internal displacement plays in such a dynamic. This question is of relevance because of the particular marginalization of internally displaced persons, which make them at risk of predation and militarization by armed groups. Drawing on a novel global data set on internal displacement, we evaluate this question and find evidence for a similar mechanism leading to conflict spread operating at the domestic level.

Why Do People Flee? Revisiting Forced Migration in Post-Saddam Baghdad

“…The Iraqi survey sheds light on one of the darkest periods in the country's history by providing information on the circumstances that push/pull people to leave/stay when faced with political violence and ethnic conflict. While the data confirm previous findings in similar cases about the relationship between political violence and forced migration (García 2006;Engel and Ibáñez 2007;Czaika and Kis-Katos 2009;Holmes and De Piñeres 2011;Zetter et al 2013;Balcells and Steele 2016;Bohnet et al 2018), our study brings new information to public debates, with particular relevance for antiimmigrant platforms and the refugee crisis. For one thing, we show the ambiguous effect of economic status on the process of shaping migration intentions; for another, our basic yet useful socioeconomic profile of the public in the post-Saddam period indicates that potential refugees are generally well-educated (unlike common assumptions) and represent families with children.…”

Internally displaced persons and the Cyprus peace process

“…Our findings demonstrate the critical role of IDP-specific research in conflict resolution studies, particularly power-sharing settlements. Contrary to much of the literature on the radicalization of displaced persons (Achvarina and Reich, 2006;Choi and Piazza 2016;Bohnet et al, 2018), IDP status among Greek Cypriots appears to be associated with higher levels of support for peace processes. While conclusions and recommendations cannot be generalised beyond our specific case and survey results, our questionnaire and methodology offer a useful tool for comparable situations where return options constitute a critical priority among displaced communities.…”

Introducing POSVAR: A dataset on refugee-related violence

“…Prevalence of anti-refugee violence, by perpetrator (1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) terrorist groups is a statistically significant predictor of the risk of civil conflict in the host state. Model 2 also suggests that the militarization of refugee groups is a stronger predictor of civil conflict than the size of the hosted refugee population, which is consistent with the results of previous studies, including Lischer (2005) and Bohnet, Cottier & Hug (2018). While we do not claim to establish causality in these models, we are able to show a more direct and clear correlation between refugee flows and civil war that has been previously assumed but not demonstrated.…”