Confronting the caliphate? Explaining civil resistance in jihadist proto-states

Abstract

Research has shown the potential of nonviolent civil resistance in challenging autocratic state regimes (e.g. Sharp, 1973; Chenoweth and Stephan, 2011). Yet, little is known about its applicability in jihadist proto-states, that is, territories governed by militant jihadist groups. We argue that civil resistance is more likely to occur when jihadists impose a rule that local populations perceive as alien and when organizational structures capable of collective nonviolent mobilization are activated. We develop this argument through a comparative analysis of three jihadist proto-states: one in which manifest and organized civil resistance occurred (Islamic Emirate of Azawad in Mali in 2012), and two in which it did not: the Islamic State of Iraq (2006–2008) and the Islamic Principality of al-Mukalla in Yemen (2015–2016). Whereas the former was met with mainly armed resistance (the Sunni Awakening campaign), the latter saw neither armed nor unarmed organized and collective resistance by locals under its rule. We demonstrate how variation in the jihadists’ governing strategies (especially the degree of adaptation to local conditions) as well as in the social structures for mobilization (i.e. whether opposition was channeled through civil society networks or tribal networks) created different conditions for civil resistance. This study adds to a growing research discussion on civil resistance against rebel governance (e.g. Arjona, 2015; Kaplan, 2017). More broadly, our study is an innovative first attempt to bridge research on terrorism, rebel governance, and civil resistance, three fields that have been siloed in previous research.

Civilian Protest in Civil War: Insights from Côte d’Ivoire

“…About one-fourth of all protests in Africa in 1992–2013 took place in areas with active armed conflict (Vüllers and Krtsch 2020, 5). Case study evidence from Afghanistan (Jackson 2021), Colombia (Arjona 2016; Kaplan 2017; León 2017; Masullo 2021), Mali (Svensson and Finnbogason 2021), and Syria (Svensson et al 2022) paints a similar picture. Such nonviolent civilian action follows systematic patterns, and often constitutes a reaction to violence (Vüllers and Krtsch 2020) or unpopular wartime governance (Arjona 2016; Svensson and Finnbogason 2021).…”

“…Case study evidence from Afghanistan (Jackson 2021), Colombia (Arjona 2016; Kaplan 2017; León 2017; Masullo 2021), Mali (Svensson and Finnbogason 2021), and Syria (Svensson et al 2022) paints a similar picture. Such nonviolent civilian action follows systematic patterns, and often constitutes a reaction to violence (Vüllers and Krtsch 2020) or unpopular wartime governance (Arjona 2016; Svensson and Finnbogason 2021). Moreover, nonviolent civilian action is more common when civilians can draw on strong institutions (Arjona 2016; Kaplan 2017) and social networks (Rubin 2020; Svensson and Finnbogason 2021; van Baalen 2021) to overcome collective action problems.…”

“…Such nonviolent civilian action follows systematic patterns, and often constitutes a reaction to violence (Vüllers and Krtsch 2020) or unpopular wartime governance (Arjona 2016; Svensson and Finnbogason 2021). Moreover, nonviolent civilian action is more common when civilians can draw on strong institutions (Arjona 2016; Kaplan 2017) and social networks (Rubin 2020; Svensson and Finnbogason 2021; van Baalen 2021) to overcome collective action problems. Additionally, studies show that nonviolent civilian action is more likely when the political opportunity structure favors mobilization (Bamber and Svensson 2022).…”

“…During the Guatemalan civil war, social movements organized weekly mass-marches to denounce the government’s human rights abuses (Dudouet 2021, 11). And, in Gao in Mali, hundreds protested against the jihadists’ destruction of ancient tombs and ban on football (Svensson and Finnbogason 2021, 581).…”

Analisis Indeks Kebahagiaan Kepala Sekolah Dan Guru Dalam Kegiatan Bimbingan Teknis Program Sekolah Penggerak

“…Sebagian besar penelitian melaporkan bahwa emosi positif meningkatkan kinerja dan mempengaruhi kapasitas pekerja untuk inovasi (Svensson & Finnbogason, 2021).…”