Considering Forward Electricity Prices for a Hydro Power Plant Risk Analysis in the Brazilian Electricity Market

Lauro, Arthur; Kitamura, Daniel Toledo; Lima, Waleska; Dias, Bruno H.; Soares, Tiago

doi:10.3390/en16031173

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…It is concluded that one of the risks to be reduced is financial risks. Lauro et al [23] and Martins et al [24] identified that financial risks should be considered in energy investments.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comprehensive Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Model for Hydroelectricity Energy Investments

Yüksel,

Eti,

Dinçer

et al. 2024

J. Soft. Comput. Decis. Anal.

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The risks of hydroelectricity energy investments should be managed effectively to increase the performance of these projects. Thus, more significant risks should be identified to take effective measures for risk management without experiencing high costs. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to define critical risks in hydroelectricity energy investment projects by making a priority analysis. Within this scope, a new decision-making model is created. In the first stage, five different risks are examined by considering Spherical fuzzy Entropy. Moreover, the second stage consists of ranking emerging seven countries with the help of Spherical fuzzy multi-attribute ideal-real comparative assessment (MAIRCA). The main contribution of this study is that more important risks of hydroelectricity energy investments can be identified by the help of the priority analysis. This situation provides an opportunity to implement effective strategies to increase these investments without having high costs. Additionally, considering Spherical fuzzy sets has a positive impact on the appropriateness of the results. Since these numbers use a wider data range, the effectiveness of the analysis results can increase. It is determined that the most important risk is environmental risk with the highest weight value of 0.2478. Financial risks and personnel risks are other significant factors that affect the performance of the hydroelectricity energy investments. Furthermore, as a result of ranking the alternatives, it is seen that China is the most suitable country for hydroelectric energy investments. India and Mexico are other successful countries in this respect. However, Turkey and Indonesia have lower performance for this situation.

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“…It is concluded that one of the risks to be reduced is financial risks. Lauro et al [23] and Martins et al [24] identified that financial risks should be considered in energy investments.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comprehensive Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Model for Hydroelectricity Energy Investments

Yüksel,

Eti,

Dinçer

et al. 2024

J. Soft. Comput. Decis. Anal.

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“…Lauro et al [27] proposed a methodology for simulating the decision-making process for energy contracting from a hydroelectric power plant, considering uncertainties about the spot price, forward contract prices, and generation scaling factor. The authors considered the monthly prices and two-stage stochastic dynamic programming to model the uncertainty in forward prices.…”

Section: B Brazilian Electricity Spot Pricesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multifractal Analysis of the Brazilian Electricity Market

Castro,

Marcato,

De Aguiar

2023

IEEE Access

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In the Brazilian wholesale electricity market, power generators and large consumers negotiate long-term contract prices freely. However, sophisticated computational models evaluate the energy market price, or Difference Settlement Price (DSP). Hydrothermal dispatch optimization models drive these computational models, so market forces do not directly impact market prices. Four electrically interconnected submarkets break down the National Interconnected System (NIS) -Southeast, Northeast, North and South. Considering the historical energy prices, all these submarkets showed anti-persistence behaviour (or meanreversion) and multifractality, aligning with various studies conducted in other markets worldwide. The South submarket exhibited the highest multifractality and lowest efficiency, while the North submarket showed the lowest multifractality and highest efficiency. We also investigated the behaviour of the Hurst exponent and Long Memory Magnitude over time using sliding windows. All submarkets showed anti-persistence behavior throughout the evaluation period, with the South submarket displaying higher volatility in the efficiency index. The Northeast and North submarkets showed a downward trend in their indices over the period, indicating increased efficiency. These findings, while preliminary and requiring further in-depth analysis and consideration of other factors, offer valuable insights for decision-makers and regulators pursuing new market arrangements to boost efficiency.INDEX TERMS Brazilian electricity market, multifractal detrend fluctuation analysis, generalized hurst exponent, anti-persistence, singularity spectrum, market efficiency.

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Considering Forward Electricity Prices for a Hydro Power Plant Risk Analysis in the Brazilian Electricity Market

Cited by 2 publications

References 19 publications

Comprehensive Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Model for Hydroelectricity Energy Investments

Comprehensive Risk Analysis and Decision-Making Model for Hydroelectricity Energy Investments

Multifractal Analysis of the Brazilian Electricity Market

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