Constructing a nomogram to predict overall survival of colon cancer based on computed tomography characteristics and clinicopathological factors

Abstract

BACKGROUND The colon cancer prognosis is influenced by multiple factors, including clinical, pathological, and non-biological factors. However, only a few studies have focused on computed tomography (CT) imaging features. Therefore, this study aims to predict the prognosis of patients with colon cancer by combining CT imaging features with clinical and pathological characteristics, and establishes a nomogram to provide critical guidance for the individualized treatment. AIM To establish and validate a nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) of patients with colon cancer. METHODS A retrospective analysis was conducted on the survival data of 249 patients with colon cancer confirmed by surgical pathology between January 2017 and December 2021. The patients were randomly divided into training and testing groups at a 1:1 ratio. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the independent risk factors associated with OS, and a nomogram model was constructed for the training group. Survival curves were calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method. The concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve were used to evaluate the nomogram model in the training and testing groups. RESULTS Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that lymph node metastasis on CT, perineural invasion, and tumor classification were independent prognostic factors. A nomogram incorporating these variables was constructed, and the C-index of the training and testing groups was 0.804 and 0.692, respectively. The calibration curves demonstrated good consistency between the actual values and predicted probabilities of OS. CONCLUSION A nomogram combining CT imaging characteristics and clinicopathological factors exhibited good discrimination and reliability. It can aid clinicians in risk stratification and postoperative monitoring and provide important guidance for the individualized treatment of patients with colon cancer.