Contact behaviour before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands: evidence from contact surveys, 2016 to 2017 and 2020 to 2023

Abstract

Background The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 was largely mitigated by limiting contacts in the general population. In early 2022, most contact-reducing measures were lifted. Aim To assess whether the population has reverted to pre-pandemic contact behaviour and how this would affect transmission potential of a newly emerging pathogen. Methods We compared two studies on contact behaviour in the Netherlands: the PIENTER Corona study, conducted during and after the pandemic (held every 2–6 months from April 2020) and the PIENTER3 study (2016–17, as pre-pandemic baseline). In both, participants (ages 1–85 years) reported number and age group of all face-to-face persons contacted on the previous day in a survey. Transmission potential was examined using the next-generation matrix approach. Results We found an average of 15.4 (95% CI: 14.3–16.4) community contacts per person per day after the pandemic in May 2023, 13% lower than baseline (17.8; 95% CI: 17.0–18.5). Among all ages, children (5–9 years) had the highest number of contacts, both pre- and post-pandemic. Mainly adults aged 20–59 years had not reverted to pre-pandemic behaviours, possibly because they more often work from home. Although the number of contacts is lower compared to the pre-pandemic period, the effect on transmission potential of a newly emerging respiratory pathogen is limited if all age groups were equally susceptible. Conclusion Continuous monitoring of contacts can signal changes in contact patterns and can define a ‘new normal’ baseline. Both aspects are needed to prepare for a future pandemic.