Containing Russia: Containing Nuclear Wars and Lesser Wars that Cascade

Abstract

War cascades to economic crises, environmental crises, and epidemics. There have been three major spikes in risks of nuclear war: the Kennedy-Krushchev spike (early 1960s); the mid-1980s (Reagan-Gorbachev); and the Biden-Putin-Xi spike today. Tangible steps were taken with the first two toward nuclear weapons elimination. Prospects of that with the current spike are mired in failures of Ukraine peacemaking. Extradition law reform is a strategy for deterrence of WMD ban violators. When nuclear powers frustrate disarmament, regional disarmament treaties can be grown. Progressively dismantled mutual assured nuclear destruction (MAD) can be steppingstones to prevent Mutual Assured Digital Destruction (MADD). Invading other countries is rare today. It does not pay. Recent empirics of warmaking effectiveness have reduced the explanatory power of realist international relations theory.