“…At a given trial, the CS and the US can appear together, the CS can appear alone, the US can appear alone, or neither of them may be present. We call the frequencies of each of these possible combinations a, b, c, and d (see Table 1, e.g., Crump, Hannah, Allan, & Hord, 2007). Using the frequencies of each type of trial, the conditional probabilities of the US given the CS (p 1 ), and of the US given the absence of the CS (p 2 ), can be calculated.…”