Convective Initiation Nowcasting in South China Using Physics‐Augmented Random Forest Models and Geostationary Satellites

Abstract

Convective initiation (CI) nowcasting in subtropical regions often faces challenges, such as complex physical processes and imbalanced samples of CI events, resulting in a high false alarm ratio (FAR). In this paper, we propose a Storm Warning System with Physics‐Augmentation (SWASP) based on the random forest algorithm and cloud physical conditions, using Himawari‐8 Advanced Himawari Imager data from April to September 2019 in South China. The cloud physical conditions (e.g., cloud‐top cooling rates) were investigated to establish regional thresholds for convection occurrence. Ancillary information, including elevation, satellite zenith angle, and latitude, was also incorporated into the SWASP model. Compared to conventional methods, the SWASP model exhibits an improved probability of detection by 0.11 and 0.08 and a decreased FAR by 0.38 and 0.44 for daytime and nighttime forecasts. Moreover, the SWASP model enables the detection of local convective storm systems about 30 min to 1 hr ahead of radar detection in typical convective storm cases. This study contributes to further advancements of the SWASP model by incorporating physical conditions and emphasizes the potential application of geostationary satellites in convective early warnings.