Cost-based fire risk assessment in natural gas industry by means of fuzzy FTA and ETA

Hosseini, Navid; Givehchi, Saeed; Maknoon, Reza

doi:10.1016/j.jlp.2019.104025

Cited by 47 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The first exponent is the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) [23], with the aim to quantify the failure probability of human and technical systems. The Event Tree Analysis (ETA) [23] is applied to assess domino effects caused by fire in gas industry, offshore installations, LNG tank storage, and process industries [105][106][107][108], and it is also used for human reliability assessment as part of THERP (Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction) [109], based also on event-tree approach for evaluating human errors and behavior. This method is applied in the analysis of the Tokai-Mura uranium reprocessing plant accident [110].…”

Section: Traditional Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis and Characterization of Risk Methodologies Applied to Industrial Parks

et al. 2020

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It is important to evaluate the risks in industrial parks and their processes due to the consequences of major accidents and especially the domino effect. Scientific works present a wide possibility of models to deal with these situations. In this work, based on the information extracted from the scientific literature, six groups of risk methodologies are defined, analyzed, and characterized with methods that cover the standards, preventive, probabilistic, traditional, modern, and dynamic evaluation that are applied or could be used in industrial parks. It also tries to achieve the objective of determining which are more appropriate if the possible situations and causes that can produce an accident are taken into account, identifying and evaluating them with characteristics of simultaneity and immediacy, determining the probability of an accident occurring with sufficient advance in time to avoid it under the use of a working operational procedure. There is no definitive methodology, and it is necessary that they complement each other, but considering the proposed objective, the integrated application of traditional methodologies together with the management of safety barriers, the dynamic evaluation of risks, and the inclusion of machine learning systems could fulfill the proposed objective.

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Section: Traditional Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Fuzzy models are integrated into the fuzzy information system (FIS), a general concept with the aim to evaluate the human, product, weather, or installation behavior [105].…”

Section: Modern Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis and Characterization of Risk Methodologies Applied to Industrial Parks

et al. 2020

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“…The tree diagram can be used to identify potential causes and failures for qualitative analysis. Quantitative analysis allows you to calculate the probability of occurrence of a peak event based on the partial probabilities of the event [12,13].…”

Section: Eta and Ftamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The aim is to evaluate measures, e.g., safety features that are effective in reducing side effects. The method can be used as a complementary FTA method to determine the consequences of an adverse event [13,14].…”

Section: Eta and Ftamentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the Level of Reliability in Hazardous Technological Processes

Gabriska

2020

Applied Sciences

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In an automated systems environment is very important to predicted failures or unexpected situations to achieve system reliability. Failure of such systems can cause serious property damage, the environment, damage to human health or cause death. The essential task is to determine the tolerable and acceptable risk. The required level of risk for safety-critical systems can be achieved by using international technical standards and applying safety functions. Safety functions are implemented using an electrical/electronic/programmable electronics (E/E/PE) safety-related system. Technical standards offer the aspect of balancing risk tolerability according to the relevant, reliable safety functions. Based on the specific architecture of the whole system, it is possible to determine the maximum failure rate of the probability of failure on demand (PFDSYS) of the selected architecture. Subsequent application of reliability analysis using the event tree analysis (ETA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) methods can optimize the failure rate of the entire system. Application of reliability analysis using event tree analysis (ETA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) methods can only theoretically optimize the failure rate of the entire system with constant initial conditions and constant parameters of the reliability functions. The article proposes a new methodology for dynamic analysis of the state of system reliability as a function of the system operation time, maintenance frequency and system architecture. As a result of the methodology is a library of standard element architectures and simulation models which allows predicting and optimizing the reliability of E/E/PE safety-related systems.

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“…The fuzzy set theory was introduced in 1965 by Lotfizadeh [11] to deal with uncertainty due to imprecision and vagueness. More and more investigators successfully used the FFTA technique in various areas [12][13][14][15][16][17]. Lin et al [12] combined fuzzy set theories with expert elicitation to solve the safety problem of unexpected robot motion in an aircraft wing drilling system.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Fuzzy Fault Tree Reliability Analysis Based on Improved T–S Model with Application to NC Turret

Yang

Wang

et al. 2021

Preprint

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In Takagi and Sugeno (T–S) fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA), the construction of T-S fuzzy gates relies too much on expert experience, which will result in inevitable subjective errors. In order to overcome this disadvantage, a new method was proposed which combined importance index with T-S fuzzy fault tree model to evaluate reliability of the events. The importance index of components can be solved through Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. The proposed method is suitable for systems where exact information on the fault probabilities of the components and the magnitude of failure and effect on system are not available. The concept and calculation method of T-S probability importance was presented. Finally, the feasibility of the method is verified by analyzing the reliability of the sealing subsystem of the NC turret and the weak links of the system are obtained by the importance analysis, which will provide data for system fault diagnosis and preventive maintenance.

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Cost-based fire risk assessment in natural gas industry by means of fuzzy FTA and ETA

Cited by 47 publications

References 35 publications

Analysis and Characterization of Risk Methodologies Applied to Industrial Parks

Analysis and Characterization of Risk Methodologies Applied to Industrial Parks

Evaluation of the Level of Reliability in Hazardous Technological Processes

Fuzzy Fault Tree Reliability Analysis Based on Improved T–S Model with Application to NC Turret

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