Cost Pass‐Through in Commodity Markets With Capacity Constraints and International Linkages

Abstract

We examine how regional cost shocks are passed through into the prices of globally traded energy‐intensive commodities. We find that the pass‐through of local costs is influenced by production capacity in the short run. When capacity constraints become binding, the pass‐through of cost shocks to the constrained region diminishes to zero. Our application to the market for ammonia, a commodity largely produced from natural gas, demonstrates the significance of capacity constraints and international market linkages for empirical pass‐through models.