Could the Ambient Higher Temperature Decrease the Transmissibility of COVID-19 in China?

Abstract

Background: Existing literatures demonstrated that meteorological factors could be of importance in affecting the spread patterns of the respiratory infectious diseases. However, how ambient temperature may influence the transmissibility of COVID-19 remains unclear.Objectives: We explore the association between ambient temperature and transmissibility of COVID-19 in different regions across China.Methods: The surveillance data on COVID-19 and meteorological factors were collected from 28 provincial level regions in China, and estimated the instantaneous reproductive number ( Rt). The generalized additive model was used to assess the relationship between mean temperature and Rt.Results: There were 12745 COVID-19 cases collected in the study areas. We report the effect of temperature on R t is not of statistical significance, which holds for most of included regions except for those in North China. Conclusions: We found little statistical evidence for that the higher temperature may reduce the transmissibility of COVID-19.

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