Countercyclical Endogenous Uncertainty Shocks, Efficiency Wages and Procyclical Precautionary Labor Productivity

Abstract

Les documents de travail ne reflètent pas la position du CREST et n'engagent que leurs auteurs. Working papers do not reflect the position of CREST but only the views of the authors. AbstractThis work introduces a new mechanism generating procyclical comovements of labor productivity, employment, through endogenous variations of workers' effort, in a simple model with efficiency wages, near a locally indeterminate steady state. A current endogenous countercyclical uncertainty shock makes risk averse workers more willing to provide imperfectly monitored "precautionary effort" by increasing their expected utility gain of not shirking. If workers' relative prudence is small and decreasing fast near the steady state, firms' efficiency wage contracts generate significant endogenous procyclical variations of effort, employment and labor productivity, in particular when the capital-efficient labor elasticity of substitution is smaller than and close to 1.