Counting Atlantic tropical cyclones back to 1900

Landsea, Christopher W.

doi:10.1029/2007eo180001

Cited by 292 publications

(231 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…The pattern of increasing drought area alleviated is associated with the total number of TCs (r 5 0.308; p , 0.001) in the Atlantic basin and with the total number of hurricane landfalls (r 5 0.196; p 5 0.033) documented by Landsea (2007). The driving forces behind TC formation, in addition to steering mechanisms, are thus important to TCDB climatology, although the steering factors associated with the NAO have a greater impact on the odds of TCDB occurrence.…”

Section: B General Characteristics and Larger-scale Ocean-atmospherementioning

confidence: 98%

“…5c). The general peaks in TCDBs appear to be associated with peaks in total land-falling TCs for the Atlantic basin (Landsea 2007), with a higher number of TCDBs occurring in the mid-1900s and the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries (Fig. 5a).…”

Section: A Differences In Tcdb Characteristics Between the Acs And Gcsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, a comparison of 1931-60 and 1961-2007 for the entire eastern United States revealed a significant increase in TC rainfall in the latter period for the Gulf Coast states (GCS) and Florida that was concurrent with a decreasing trend in TC rainfall in Georgia and South Carolina (Nogueira et al 2013). However, a separate analysis found that in coastal regions of the Southeast, TC rainfall was greater during 1931-60, while inland TC rainfall was greater during 1961-2007(Nogueira and Keim 2011. Anomalously low TC rainfall occurred for the entire Southeast during 1973-84 (Nogueira and Keim 2010).…”

Section: A Interdecadal Tc Landfall and Tc Precipitation Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Tropical Cyclones and Drought Amelioration in the Gulf and Southeastern Coastal United States

et al. 2013

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Precipitation from land-falling tropical cyclones (TCs) has a significant hydroclimatic influence in the southeastern United States, particularly during drought years. The frequency with which TCs ended drought conditions was examined for southeastern coastal states from Texas to North Carolina during 1895-2011. The region was divided into the Gulf Coast states (GCS) and the southeastern Atlantic coast states (ACS). The spatiotemporal patterns of tropical cyclone drought busters (TCDBs) were analyzed. Larger-scale ocean-atmosphere influences on TCDBs were examined using chi-squared analysis. The ACS experienced TCDBs more frequently and farther inland compared to the GCS. The number of TCDBs has significantly increased with time in the ACS. TCDBs numbers in the GCS did not exhibit significant increases, but the area alleviated of drought conditions increased significantly in the last 117 years. The dominant larger-scale oceanatmosphere forcing of TCDBs was a combination of a warm Atlantic Ocean ABSTRACTPrecipitation from land-falling tropical cyclones (TCs) has a significant hydroclimatic influence in the southeastern United States, particularly during drought years. The frequency with which TCs ended drought conditions was examined for southeastern coastal states from Texas to North Carolina during 1895-2011. The region was divided into the Gulf Coast states (GCS) and the southeastern Atlantic coast states (ACS). The spatiotemporal patterns of tropical cyclone drought busters (TCDBs) were analyzed. Larger-scale oceanatmosphere influences on TCDBs were examined using chi-squared analysis. The ACS experienced TCDBs more frequently and farther inland compared to the GCS. The number of TCDBs has significantly increased with time in the ACS. TCDBs numbers in the GCS did not exhibit significant increases, but the area alleviated of drought conditions increased significantly in the last 117 years. The dominant larger-scale ocean-atmosphere forcing of TCDBs was a combination of a warm Atlantic Ocean [positive Atlantic multidecadal oscillation index (AMO1)] and weak westerlies [negative North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO2)]. AMO1 leads to an increase in the number of TCs throughout the North Atlantic basin, and NAO2 increases the likelihood of TC landfall by controlling the steering of TCs toward the southeastern United States.

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Section: B General Characteristics and Larger-scale Ocean-atmospherementioning

confidence: 98%

Section: A Differences In Tcdb Characteristics Between the Acs And Gcsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: A Interdecadal Tc Landfall and Tc Precipitation Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Tropical Cyclones and Drought Amelioration in the Gulf and Southeastern Coastal United States

et al. 2013

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“…Meteorological records of the number, track and intensity of hurricanes in the Atlantic extend back to the mid-19 th century, although debate exists over whether trends in storm observations genuinely reflect secular changes in the underlying population of Atlantic hurricanes or if advances in storm detection and observation prevent the attribution of these trends to changes in storm climate (Goldenberg et al 2001, Emanuel 2005, Webster et al 2005, Anthes et al 2006, Hoyos et al 2006, Mann and Emanuel 2006, Trenberth and Shea 2006, Chang and Guo 2007, Kossin et al 2007, Landsea 2007, Mann et al 2007, Chen et al 2009). Moreover, the brief observational record is inadequate for characterizing natural variability in hurricane activity occurring on longer than multi-decadal timescales.…”

Section: Review and Motivationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Much of the criticism against using the historic Atlantic hurricane record to detect secular trends in tropical cyclone activity is related to the improvement of storm detection and observation through time (Landsea 2007, Chen et al 2009). A similar criticism could be leveled against the paleohurricane record contained in Mullet Pond, which should have experienced increasing susceptibility to storm surges as sea level rose and, therefore, should have become a more complete record of storm activity toward present.…”

Section: Site Sensitivity To Storm Surge Through Timementioning

confidence: 99%

A decadally-resolved paleohurricane record archived in the late Holocene sediments of a Florida sinkhole

Lane¹,

Donnelly²,

Woodruff³

et al. 2011

Marine Geology

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A 4500-year record of hurricane-induced storm surges is developed from sediment cores collected from a coastal sinkhole near Apalachee Bay, Florida. Recent deposition of sand layers in the upper sediments of the pond was found to be contemporaneous with significant, historic storm surges at the site modeled using SLOSH and the Best Track, post-1851 A.D. dataset. Using the historic portion of the record for calibration, paleohurricane deposits were identified by sand content and dated using radiocarbon-based age models. Marine-indicative foraminifera, some originating at least 5 km offshore, were present in several modern and ancient storm deposits. The presence and long-term preservation of offshore foraminifera suggest that this site and others like it may yield promising microfossil-based paleohurricane reconstructions in the future. Due to the sub-decadal (~ 7 year) resolution of the record and the site's high susceptibility to hurricane-generated storm surges, the average, local frequency of recorded events, approximately 3.9 storms per century, is greater than that of previously published paleohurricane records from the region. The high incidence of recorded events permitted a time series of local hurricane frequency during the last five millennia to be constructed. Variability in the frequency of the largest storm layers was found to be greater than what would likely occur by chance alone, with intervals of both anomalously high and low storm frequency identified. However, the rate at which smaller layers were deposited was relatively constant over the last five millennia. This may suggest that significant variability in hurricane frequency has occurred only in the highest magnitude events. The frequency of high magnitude events peaked near 6 storms per century between 2800 and 2300 years ago. High magnitude events were relatively rare with about 0-3 storms per century occurring between 1900 to 1600 years ago and between 400 to 150 years ago. A marked decline in the number of large storm deposits, which began around 600 years ago, has persisted through present with below average frequency over the last 150 years when compared to the preceding five millennia.

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Long‐term variations of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity downscaled from a coupled model simulation of the last millennium

et al. 2013

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[1] The observed historical record of North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) is relatively short and is subject to potential biases owing to a lack of observation platforms such as aircraft reconnaissance and satellite imagery in earlier decades. Therefore, studies of long-term variability in TC activity are hindered by the limitations and uncertainty within the historical data. An alternative approach is to study long-term Atlantic TC variability within the framework of a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model simulation. We have taken such an approach using a simulation of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate System Model 1.4 forced with estimated natural and anthropogenic forcing over the past millennium. Atmospheric variables from the long-term model simulation are used to drive a recently developed downscaling relationship that simulates TC genesis and tracking over the course of the 1150 year model simulation. This downscaling process generates a long-term synthetic TC track data set, free of observational biases, though subject to limitations in the model climatology. The synthetic TC data are used to perform an analysis of long-term variability in Atlantic TCs, specifically focusing on TC landfalls, within the context of the coupled model simulation. Ultimately, analysis of various TC time series reveals that counts of landfalling TCs and even landfalling hurricanes track relatively well with the total basin-wide TC activity on multidecadal and longer timescales.

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Counting Atlantic tropical cyclones back to 1900

Cited by 292 publications

References 3 publications

Tropical Cyclones and Drought Amelioration in the Gulf and Southeastern Coastal United States

Tropical Cyclones and Drought Amelioration in the Gulf and Southeastern Coastal United States

A decadally-resolved paleohurricane record archived in the late Holocene sediments of a Florida sinkhole

Long‐term variations of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity downscaled from a coupled model simulation of the last millennium

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