Coupling an Ecological Network with Multi-Scenario Land Use Simulation: An Ecological Spatial Constraint Approach

Abstract

To balance ecological protection and urban development, a land use simulation model that couples an ecological network (EN) and multiple scenarios was developed based on the PLUS model. The simulation of land use in the Qiantang River Basin in 2030 successfully demonstrates the usefulness of the EN-PLUS model. In this model, conventional ecological constraints (nature reserves and water areas) and three different EN levels were taken as restricted conversion areas during the simulation. Then, four ecological constraints were coupled with four simulation scenarios: business as usual (BAU), rapid urban development (RUD), ecological protection (EP), and urban- and ecology-balanced (UEB). Information from the analysis of model simulation results can be used to reduce the potential damage to a range of land cover types. However, this protective effect is not obvious under the RUD scenario due to the impact of significant human disturbance. Furthermore, although EP is the scenario with the least ecological damage at the whole watershed scale, this is not the case for all subbasins. This indicates the existence of a landscape scale effect. Therefore, the best development scenario should be selected by comprehensively weighing the scale effect and the ecological characteristics of each subbasin.

A Study of the Spatiotemporal Evolution Patterns and Coupling Coordination between Ecosystem Service Values and Habitat Quality in Diverse Scenarios: The Case of Chengdu Metropolitan Area, China

“…(3) Urban Development Scenario (UDS): China's cities are still in a stage of outward expansion, and many studies have discussed development dominance as a future urban development scenario [57]. In the UDS, emphasis is placed on urban construction and development, specifically the expansion of urban building land.…”

Research on the coupled mechanism of landscape connectivity simulation by integrating multi‐level ecological security patterns and multi‐scenario simulation: A case study of the main urban area of Hangzhou

“…In contrast, ESPs are a comprehensive network system formed by organically connecting key areas for ecological processes through ecological corridors (Peng et al, 2017; Huang et al, 2022), making them a suitable choice as spatial ecological constraints. Moreover, using different levels of ESPs as conversion zones for different simulation scenarios would facilitate the construction of a simulation mechanism adaptable to multiple development goals (Nie et al, 2023; Nie, Xu, et al, 2022). However, the practice of coupling multi‐level ESPs with multi‐scenario simulation is still relatively uncommon in research on dynamic optimization of landscape connectivity.…”

Simulating Urban Expansion from the Perspective of Spatial Anisotropy and Expansion Neighborhood

“…Modeling spatial anisotropy in urban expansion has long been of interest, yet challenges persist in its modeling. Current research on modeling spatial anisotropy in urban expansion mainly focuses on directional characteristics of urban evolution through aspects such as planning constraints [20], natural condition constraints [21], sector-based weighting [22], specific directional geographic weighting [23], among others.…”