Coupling cellular automata and What If? models for residential expansion simulation: A case study of Southwest Sydney, Australia

Abstract

The impact of urban expansion on achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs) has become a significant research topic in the field of geographic information science. In this article, we describe a coupled cellular automata (CA)—‐What If? model to explore SDG11 “Sustainable cities and communities.” The model calculates overall residential land use demand based on historical data archives using the What If? planning support system (PSS), and then allocates it using a CA model that incorporates variables related to SDG11.2.1 and 11.7.1. Historical datasets for years 2016 and 2021 from Southwest Sydney, Australia were used to assess model accuracy, after which two residential expansion scenarios (years 2021 and 2026) were generated. Based on the modeling results, the SDG‐related spatial variables can improve the overall accuracy of CA sub‐models using an XGBoost machine learning training methodology. The simulation results of these scenarios confirm the effectiveness of the coupled CA‐What If? model, which has the potential to generate more reliable scenario results than the standalone What If? PSS for modeling urban growth of cities across Australia and internationally.