Coupling Natural and Human Models in the Context of a Lake Ecosystem: Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, USA

Weng, Weizhe; Boyle, Kevin J.; Farrell, Kaitlin J.; Carey, Cayelan C.; Cobourn, Kelly M.; Dugan, Hilary A.; Hanson, Paul C.; Ward, Nicole K.; Weathers, Kathleen C.

doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106556

Cited by 19 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…The strong relationship between anoxia and water column stability suggests that a changing climate might increase the AF. Future climate in the region is expected to warm (Veloz et al, 2012), which may amplify and prolong water column stratification through increasing air temperatures (O'Reilly et al, 2015;Winslow et al, 2017). Shorter ice duration or even the total loss of ice (Sharma et al, 2019) could promote earlier heat storage in Lake Mendota, which could potentially increase the summer Schmidt stability, as demonstrated by Farrell et al (2020).…”

Section: Implications For Landscape and Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Lake thermal structure drives interannual variability in summer anoxia dynamics in a eutrophic lake over 37 years

Ladwig

Hanson

Dugan

et al. 2021

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The concentration of oxygen is fundamental to lake water quality and ecosystem functioning through its control over habitat availability for organisms, redox reactions, and recycling of organic material. In many eutrophic lakes, oxygen depletion in the bottom layer (hypolimnion) occurs annually during summer stratification. The temporal and spatial extent of summer hypolimnetic anoxia is determined by interactions between the lake and its external drivers (e.g., catchment characteristics, nutrient loads, meteorology) as well as internal feedback mechanisms (e.g., organic matter recycling, phytoplankton blooms). How these drivers interact to control the evolution of lake anoxia over decadal timescales will determine, in part, the future lake water quality. In this study, we used a vertical one-dimensional hydrodynamic–ecological model (GLM-AED2) coupled with a calibrated hydrological catchment model (PIHM-Lake) to simulate the thermal and water quality dynamics of the eutrophic Lake Mendota (USA) over a 37 year period. The calibration and validation of the lake model consisted of a global sensitivity evaluation as well as the application of an optimization algorithm to improve the fit between observed and simulated data. We calculated stability indices (Schmidt stability, Birgean work, stored internal heat), identified spring mixing and summer stratification periods, and quantified the energy required for stratification and mixing. To qualify which external and internal factors were most important in driving the interannual variation in summer anoxia, we applied a random-forest classifier and multiple linear regressions to modeled ecosystem variables (e.g., stratification onset and offset, ice duration, gross primary production). Lake Mendota exhibited prolonged hypolimnetic anoxia each summer, lasting between 50–60 d. The summer heat budget, the timing of thermal stratification, and the gross primary production in the epilimnion prior to summer stratification were the most important predictors of the spatial and temporal extent of summer anoxia periods in Lake Mendota. Interannual variability in anoxia was largely driven by physical factors: earlier onset of thermal stratification in combination with a higher vertical stability strongly affected the duration and spatial extent of summer anoxia. A measured step change upward in summer anoxia in 2010 was unexplained by the GLM-AED2 model. Although the cause remains unknown, possible factors include invasion by the predacious zooplankton Bythotrephes longimanus. As the heat budget depended primarily on external meteorological conditions, the spatial and temporal extent of summer anoxia in Lake Mendota is likely to increase in the near future as a result of projected climate change in the region.

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Section: Implications For Landscape and Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Lake thermal structure drives interannual variability in summer anoxia dynamics in a eutrophic lake over 37 years

Ladwig

Hanson

Dugan

et al. 2021

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…CC BY 4.0 License. inflow loading regression see Weng et al (2020). To provide information regarding adsorbed soluble reactive phosphate, we doubled measured total phosphorus (TP) concentrations and applied specific ratios to individual phosphorus forms Snortheim et al, 2017;Weng et al, 2020).…”

Section: Driver Data Acquisitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…inflow loading regression see Weng et al (2020). To provide information regarding adsorbed soluble reactive phosphate, we doubled measured total phosphorus (TP) concentrations and applied specific ratios to individual phosphorus forms Snortheim et al, 2017;Weng et al, 2020). As direct measurements of inlet loadings of refractory organic matter, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and silica were not available, we assumed constant average values for the inflow loadings similar to the long-term mean values of the water column.…”

Section: Driver Data Acquisitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lake thermal structure drives inter-annual variability in summer anoxia dynamics in a eutrophic lake over 37 years

Ladwig¹,

Hanson²,

Dugan³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. The concentration of oxygen is fundamental to lake water quality and ecosystem functioning through its control over habitat availability for organisms, redox reactions, and recycling of organic material. In many eutrophic lakes, oxygen depletion in the bottom layer (hypolimnion) occurs annually during summer stratification. The temporal and spatial extent of summer hypolimnetic anoxia is determined by interactions between the lake and its external drivers (e.g., catchment characteristics/nutrient loads, meteorology), as well as internal feedback mechanisms (e.g., organic matter recycling, phytoplankton blooms). How these drivers interact to control the evolution of lake anoxia over decadal time scales will determine, in part, the future lake water quality. In this study, we used a vertical one-dimensional hydrodynamic-ecological model (GLM-AED2) coupled with a calibrated hydrological catchment model (PIHM-Lake) to simulate the thermal and water quality dynamics of the eutrophic Lake Mendota (USA) over a 37-year period. The calibration and validation of the lake model consisted of a global sensitivity evaluation as well as the application of an evolutionary optimization algorithm to improve the fit between observed and simulated data. By quantifying stability indices (Schmidt Stability, Birgean Work, stored internal heat), we identified spring mixing and summer stratification periods, and quantified the energy required for stratification and mixing. To qualify which external and internal factors were most important in driving the inter-annual variation in summer anoxia, we applied a random-forest classifier and multiple linear regression to modeled ecosystem variables (e.g., stratification onset and offset, ice duration, gross primary production.) Lake Mendota exhibited prolonged hypolimnetic anoxia each summer, lasting between 50–60 days. The summer heat budget, as well as the timing of thermal stratification, were the most important predictors of the spatial and temporal extent of summer anoxia periods in Lake Mendota. An earlier onset of thermal stratification in combination with a higher vertical stability strongly affected the duration and spatial extent of summer anoxia. As the heat budget depended primarily on external meteorological conditions, the spatial and temporal extent of summer anoxia in Lake Mendota is likely to increase in the near future as a result of projected climate change in the region.

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“…The standard approach, therefore, is to identify housing markets within a state that contain multiple lakes with differing levels of water quality (Gibbs et al, 2002;Kashian et al, 2006;Michael et al, 1996;Walsh et al, 2011;Wolf & Klaiber, 2017). A few studies have used an alternative approach exploiting temporal variation within a single lake (Carey & Leftwich, 2007;Weng et al, 2020). Recently Moore et al (2020) estimated implicit prices for water quality at a national scale, incorporating data from 113 lakes across 32 states in a single hedonic model.…”

Section: General Audience Abstractmentioning

confidence: 99%

Examining Implicit Price Variation for Lake Water Quality

Swedberg

Boyle

Stachelek

et al. 2022

Water Econs. Policy

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Hedonic price models are commonly used to estimate implicit prices for lake water quality across small geographic regions that might be assumed to be a part of a common real estate market. Yet recent studies expand the geographic scale of the hedonic model potentially obscuring important differences in implicit prices across markets. We estimate implicit prices for lake water quality across multiple states in the northeast and upper Midwest in the United States of America at three different geographic scales: substate, state, and multistate. We find implicit price estimates are heterogeneous at both the substate and state-levels, which is not accounted for in state-level or multistate hedonic models. Our results show that estimates across a broad geographic scale can be driven by a single subregion within the defined area. Overall, the study demonstrates that using a single hedonic model over a large geographic area may obscure important heterogeneity in implicit prices used to estimate potential benefits for water-quality improvements.

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Coupling Natural and Human Models in the Context of a Lake Ecosystem: Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, USA

Cited by 19 publications

References 39 publications

Lake thermal structure drives interannual variability in summer anoxia dynamics in a eutrophic lake over 37 years

Lake thermal structure drives interannual variability in summer anoxia dynamics in a eutrophic lake over 37 years

Lake thermal structure drives inter-annual variability in summer anoxia dynamics in a eutrophic lake over 37 years

Examining Implicit Price Variation for Lake Water Quality

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