Coupling urban expansion models and hydrological models: How important are spatial patterns?

Poelmans, Lien; Rompaey, Anton Van; Batelaan, Okke

doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.12.010

Cited by 57 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…changes to impervious surfaces) is comparable with the findings of previous studies (Poelmans et al, 2010;Dams et al, 2013;Verbeiren et al, 2013). In those studies, recent increases in urban footprints in northwest Europe are found to produce similar elevated run-off quantities on a catchment scale during both normal and extreme precipitation.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

“…Most of these studies adopt a modelling approach where estimates of ISs at two or more points in time are combined with spatially distributed hydrological models in order to examine the influence of changes in urban land cover on water balance parameters. Results generally confirm that the increase in urbanization strongly affects peak discharges, run-off volumes and hydrological response times during extreme precipitation (Semadeni-Davies et al, 2008). The impact of changes in imperviousness is found to be more pronounced for less extreme events than for very extreme events (and probabilistically less frequent) (Hollis, 1975).…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 57%

“…Weng, 2001;Chormanski et al, 2008;Poelmans et al, 2010;Dams et al, 2013;Verbeiren et al, 2013;Urich and Rauch, 2014;Skougaard Kaspersen et al, 2015). Most of these studies adopt a modelling approach where estimates of ISs at two or more points in time are combined with spatially distributed hydrological models in order to examine the influence of changes in urban land cover on water balance parameters.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparison of the impacts of urban development and climate change on exposing European cities to pluvial flooding

Kaspersen

Ravn²,

Arnbjerg‐Nielsen

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

160

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Abstract. The economic and human consequences of extreme precipitation and the related flooding of urban areas have increased rapidly over the past decades. Some of the key factors that affect the risks to urban areas include climate change, the densification of assets within cities and the general expansion of urban areas. In this paper, we examine and compare quantitatively the impact of climate change and recent urban development patterns on the exposure of four European cities to pluvial flooding. In particular, we investigate the degree to which pluvial floods of varying severity and in different geographical locations are influenced to the same extent by changes in urban land cover and climate change. We have selected the European cities of Odense, Vienna, Strasbourg and Nice for analyses to represent different climatic conditions, trends in urban development and topographical characteristics. We develop and apply a combined remote-sensing and flood-modelling approach to simulate the extent of pluvial flooding for a range of extreme precipitation events for historical (1984) and present-day (2014) urban land cover and for two climate-change scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Changes in urban land cover are estimated using Landsat satellite imagery for the period 1984-2014. We combine the remote-sensing analyses with regionally downscaled estimates of precipitation extremes of current and expected future climate to enable 2-D overland flow simulations and flood-hazard assessments. The individual and combined impacts of urban development and climate change are quantified by examining the variations in flooding between the different simulations along with the corresponding uncertainties. In addition, two different assumptions are examined with regards to the development of the capacity of the urban drainage system in response to urban development and climate change. In the "stationary" approach, the capacity resembles present-day design, while it is updated in the "evolutionary" approach to correspond to changes in imperviousness and precipitation intensities due to urban development and climate change respectively. For all four cities, we find an increase in flood exposure corresponding to an observed absolute growth in impervious surfaces of 7-12 % during the past 30 years of urban development. Similarly, we find that climate change increases exposure to pluvial flooding under both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The relative importance of urban development and climate change on flood exposure varies considerably between the cities. For Odense, the impact of urban development is comparable to that of climate change under an RCP 8.5 scenario (2081-2100), while for Vienna and Strasbourg it is comparable to the impacts of an RCP 4.5 scenario. For Nice, climate change dominates urban development as the primary driver of changes in exposure to flooding. The variation between geographical locations is caused by differences in soil infiltration properties, historical t...

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 57%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Comparison of the impacts of urban development and climate change on exposing European cities to pluvial flooding

Kaspersen

Ravn²,

Arnbjerg‐Nielsen

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

160

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Currently, it is still unknown whether the composition or the configuration plays a more significant role in influencing waterlogging. Furthermore, the impacts of the composition and configuration of impervious surfaces on urban flooding are also scale dependent [37,38]. For example, Poelmans et al [37] found that the relative importance of the area and spatial configuration of the impervious surface to potential urban flood risk varied with the studied scales.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, the impacts of the composition and configuration of impervious surfaces on urban flooding are also scale dependent [37,38]. For example, Poelmans et al [37] found that the relative importance of the area and spatial configuration of the impervious surface to potential urban flood risk varied with the studied scales. However, the majority of previous studies focused on a single spatial scale, while a multi-scale study is needed for a better understanding.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Impervious Surface on the Spatial Distribution of Urban Waterlogging Risk Spots at Multiple Scales in Guangzhou, South China

Zhang

Cheng

et al. 2018

Sustainability

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An impervious surface is considered one of main factors affecting urban waterlogging. Previous studies found that spatial pattern (composition and configuration) of impervious surfaces affected urban waterlogging. However, their relative importance remains unknown, and the scale-effect of the spatial pattern on urban waterlogging has been ignored. To move forward, our research studied the relationship between spatial patterns on the impervious surface and its subcategories (building and pavement) on urban waterlogging risk spots using Pearson correlation, partial redundancy analysis and performed at three grid scales (1 km × 1 km, 3 km × 3 km, 5 km × 5 km) and the catchment scale based on different spatial resolution land cover maps (2 m, 10 m and 30 m). We identified positively-correlated metrics with urban waterlogging risk spots, such as the composition of impervious surface (i.e., total impervious surface, building, pavement) and the aggregation metric of the total impervious surface at most scales, as well as two negatively correlated metrics (i.e., proximity metric of building, fragmentation metric of total impervious surface). Furthermore, the total variance of urban waterlogging risk spots explained by the spatial pattern of the total impervious surface and its subcategories increased with studied grid and catchment scales while decreasing from a fine to a coarse resolution. The relative contribution of the impervious surface composition and configuration to the variation of urban waterlogging risk spots varied across scales and among impervious surface types. The composition contributed more than the configuration did for the total impervious surface at both grid and catchment scales. Similar to total impervious surface, the composition of buildings was more important than its configuration was at all the grid scales, while the configuration of buildings was more important at the catchment scale. Contrary to the total impervious surface, the configuration of pavement at both the grid and catchment scales mattered more than their compositions did. Furthermore, the composition of the building was more important than that of pavement, but its configuration mattered less. Our study could provide a multi-scale landscape perspective with detailed suggestions for controlling the area of impervious surface and optimizing its spatial configuration in urban waterlogging risk mitigation and urban planning.

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The relative impact of climate change and urban expansion on peak flows: a case study in central Belgium

Poelmans

Rompaey

Ntegeka

et al. 2011

Hydrological Processes

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Abstract:An essential part of hydrological research focuses on hydrological extremes, such as river peak flows and associated floods, because of their large impact on economy, environment, and human life. These extremes can be affected by potential future environmental change, including global climate change and land cover change. In this paper, the relative impact of both climate change and urban expansion on the peak flows and flood extent is investigated for a small-scale suburban catchment in Belgium. A rainfall-runoff model was coupled to a hydrodynamic model in order to simulate the present-day and future river streamflow. The coupled model was calibrated based on a series of measured water depths and, after model validation, fed with different climate change and urban expansion scenarios in order to evaluate the relative impact of both driving factors on the peak flows and flood extent. The three climate change scenarios that were used (dry, wet winter, wet summer) were based on a statistical downscaling of 58 different RCM and GCM scenario runs. The urban expansion scenarios were based on three different urban growth rates (low, medium, high urban expansion) that were set up by means of an extrapolation of the observed trend of urban expansion. The results suggest that possible future climate change is the main source of uncertainty affecting changes in peak flow and flood extent. The urban expansion scenarios show a more consistent trend. The potential damage related to a flood is, however, mainly influenced by land cover changes that occur in the floodplain.

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Coupling urban expansion models and hydrological models: How important are spatial patterns?

Cited by 57 publications

References 23 publications

Comparison of the impacts of urban development and climate change on exposing European cities to pluvial flooding

Comparison of the impacts of urban development and climate change on exposing European cities to pluvial flooding

Effects of Impervious Surface on the Spatial Distribution of Urban Waterlogging Risk Spots at Multiple Scales in Guangzhou, South China

The relative impact of climate change and urban expansion on peak flows: a case study in central Belgium

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