COVID-19 Outbreak After 100 Days Without Community Transmission: Epidemiological Analysis of Factors Associated With Death

Abstract

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has cost millions of deaths and lifelong consequences since December 2019. We attempted to evaluate the incidence, distribution, and risk factors associated with death after applying the social distance strategy to the second wave of SARS-CoV-2 in the Danang outbreak (July 2020), Vietnam. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the online Danang Hospital reports, gathering the epidemiological history of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 patients. We then conducted a descriptive analysis of Fisher's Phi Coefficient and Cramer's, along with multiple logistic regression models to test the effects of symptomatology and control measures performed by the Vietnamese government on transmission dynamics. The last report we examined was on August 29, 2020.Results: 389 SARS-CoV-2 confirmed cases related to the Danang outbreak are included in our analysis with a mean age of 47.1 (SD = 18.4), involving 154 men and 235 women, 34 cases of death, and 355 were alive. The study showed significant results related to age, quarantine measures, previous negative SARS-CoV-2 test, and a range of symptoms, including shortness of breath and myalgia (p-value < 0.05). Our multiple-variable analysis suggested the significant risk of death was related to age, severe symptomology, undetected SARS-CoV-2 test results, and prior quarantined SARS-CoV-2 history.Conclusions: Vietnamese authorities had implemented successful quarantine practices to control the SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks. However, this virus has shown dynamic spread beyond the ability of the country to control its transmission. Adequate screening, social distancing, and adequate care of the elderly and healthcare workers can lower the risk of future outbreaks.