Cross-Border Risks of a Global Economy in Mid-Transition

Espagne, Etienne

doi:10.5089/9798400254550.001

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 104 publications

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“…For example, in India, a transition to EVs could save USD75bn/y on oil imports by around 2030 and even up to USD140bn/y by 2040. 53 We stress that reductions in oil imports that necessarily come with EVs more than compensate for the trade balance effects of importing EVs. 53 A double dividend can arise where EVs are manufactured domestically, as occurs in China.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

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Evidence of a cascading positive tipping point towards electric vehicles

Mercure,

Lam,

Buxton

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Electric vehicles (EVs) can reduce road transport emissions and have recently seen rapid innovation, decline in cost and a rise in popularity.1–7 Past a tipping point where uptake becomes self-propelling, EVs could irreversibly replace internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), as industry discontinues conventional production chains.8–10 Here we provide evidence that this tipping point likely lies within the next few years in lead markets of the EU and China, and potentially the US, which could spill out into peripheral vehicle markets across the rest of the world. We use a comprehensive dataset over the composition of car sales between 2016 and 2022, tracking 2452 models in 33 countries. The historical evidence shows a sudden decline in conventional vehicle sales starting in 2019 concurrent to a rapid rise in sales of EVs. Critically, the variance and lag-1 autocorrelation of fluctuations in ICEV sales have increased, indicating a loss of resilience of the incumbent technology consistent with the approach to a tipping point. Activating tipping points does not necessarily achieve a sufficiently rapid transition to meet emissions targets. We use simulations of technology evolution to identify timescales for cost-parity and policy frameworks that could accelerate the transition to largely eliminate ICEVs before 2050.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…53 We stress that reductions in oil imports that necessarily come with EVs more than compensate for the trade balance effects of importing EVs. 53 A double dividend can arise where EVs are manufactured domestically, as occurs in China.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Evidence of a cascading positive tipping point towards electric vehicles

Mercure,

Lam,

Buxton

et al. 2024

Preprint

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“…A global phase-out of fossil fuels faces several barriers. First, fossil fuels are intertwined with geopolitics and concerns over energy security (Espagne et al, 2023). Europe's dramatic reduction of Russian gas imports following the invasion of Ukraine sparked a new dash for gas supplies and, in some cases, heightened reliance on coal power.…”

Section: Insight 1 Overshooting 15°c Is Fast Becoming Inevitable Grea...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Ten new insights in climate science 2023

Bustamante,

Roy,

Ospina

et al. 2023

Glob. Sustain.

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Non-technical summary. We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. Technical summary. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports provides the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitutes an unmatched resource for researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross-and interdisciplinary understanding of climate change across diverse research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesize significant research advances. We collected input from experts on various fields using an online questionnaire and prioritized a set of 10 key research insights with high policy relevance. This year, we focus on: (1) the looming overshoot of the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) the urgency of fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges to scale-up carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding future natural carbon sinks, (5) the need for joint governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in understanding compound events, (7) accelerated mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility amidst climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We present a succinct account of these insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy-relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a policy report contributing to elevate climate science every year in time for the United Nations Climate Change Conference. Social media summary. We highlight recent and policy-relevant advances in climate change researchwith input from more than 200 experts.

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Three tales of central banking and financial supervision for the ecological transition

Oman,

Salin,

Svartzman

2024

WIREs Climate Change

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The academic literature and policy discussions on the role that central banks and financial supervisors (CBFS) should play in the ecological transition, almost nonexistent five years ago, have since grown at an impressive pace. This has resulted in a wide range of proposals that often generate debates and even misunderstandings, for lack of a coherent analytical framework. Against this backdrop, this article provides a comprehensive overview of the different theoretical backgrounds and worldviews that inform existing proposals, and discusses the challenges and debates they generate when assessed from other perspectives. We identify three main approaches, or three “tales” of central banking and financial supervision in the face of ecological threats: (i) one that argues that CBFS should focus on assessing the (so‐called “physical” and “transition”) risks that environmental issues pose to price and/or financial stability; (ii) one that places great emphasis on the ability of CBFS to help trigger systemic change, and thereby promotes proactive actions by CBFS to steer financial markets toward greening their activity beyond a risk‐based approach; (iii) one that sees CBFS transformation as necessary but part of broader institutional change that they cannot deliver on their own, thereby requiring an evolutionary perspective. Through this comprehensive literature review, this article seeks to provide a coherent framework through which future academic contributions and policy proposals can be better understood and assessed.This article is categorized under: Climate Economics > Economics and Climate Change Climate Economics > Economics of Mitigation

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Cross-Border Risks of a Global Economy in Mid-Transition

Cited by 5 publications

References 104 publications

Evidence of a cascading positive tipping point towards electric vehicles

Evidence of a cascading positive tipping point towards electric vehicles

Ten new insights in climate science 2023

Three tales of central banking and financial supervision for the ecological transition

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