Cross-Strait Relations 2008–2016: Progress, Problems, and Prospects

Abstract

Cross-Strait relations over the past eight years have witnessed noticeable improvement and contributed to peace and stability in the region. This article argues that Beijing and Taipei have yet to tackle more fundamental issues and move forward with political negotiations on the status of cross-Strait relations. The growing military imbalance over the past decade has eroded Taiwan's security and undermined its ability to negotiate with Beijing from a position of strength. With the DPP's Tsai winning the 2016 election and her refusal to formally embrace the "1992 Consensus, " tensions could flare up again. Washington remains committed to Taiwan's security through defense cooperation and arms sales, but its willingness to do so will be tested by a rising China determined to resolve the issue on its own terms.