Cross-Validation of a Predictive Scale for Subsequent Suicidal Behaviour in an Italian Sample

Abstract

A six-point prodictive scale for parasuicide repetition developed by Buglass and Horton (1974a) was tested on a group of patients admitted for parasuicide to a psychiatric ward of one of the city hospitals of Verona. The scale gave a range of probability of repetition within 12 months of 15 per cent at a score of o up to 45-5 per cent at the scores 3, 4, 5 and 6. Moreover the scale discriminated significantly between repeaters and non-repeaters. Items significantly associated with repetition in the Italian sample, which are not represented by the six-point scale were: previous parasuicide not admitted to hospital, violence received, alcohol taken at time of act, less than one year at the present address.

Predictive scales for parasuicide repetition. Further results

“…This unsatisfactory result suggests that the differential characteristics of our repeaters and non-repeaters have changed from the first 3 years to the next 3 years . This is confirmed by the results of the item analysis in the second sample as compared with those obtained in the first: only two items (diagnosis of sociopathy and less than 1 year at present address) were still significantly associated with repetition, while the three other items of the list (Garzotto et al (1976)) lost their discriminating power and four additional items (previous in-patient psychiatric treatment; previous parasuicide resulting in hospital admission, unemployment; criminal record) appeared as new discriminating factors.…”

“…The aim of the present study was to retest in a second sample of Italian parasuicide patients the validity of the six-item predictive scale for parasuicide repetition developed by Buglass & Horton (1974a) and to validate a new predictive scale consisting of the five items which had discriminated repeaters from non-repeaters in the first Italian sample (Garzotto et al (1976)). In this study, as well as in the previous one, 83 % of the repeaters were correctly identified (scoring 1 or more) by the six-item scale, while 17 % were missed.…”

“…The aim of the present study was to replicate in a second Italian sample the cross-validation study of the six-item scale (Buglass & Horton (1974a)) and to test the predictive value of the five-item list developed in our previous study (Garzotto et al (1976)). …”

“…In a previous study (Garzotto et al (1976)) we cross-validated this scale in an Italian sample of parasuicide patients admitted to the psychiatric department of a general hospital. A range of probability of repetition similar to that reported by the Scottish workers was obtained, despite the small size of our sample and the different cultural context in which the scale was used.…”

Prediction of Repetition of Parasuicide: With Special Reference to Unemployment

“…1975). Previous studies have attempted to identify stable characteristics which might distinguish repeaters from non-repeaters and a predictive scale for subsequent suicidal behaviour has been constructed and validated (Buglass & Horton, 1974a;Garzotto et al 1976;Si~.ni et al 1979). …”