Crowd Evacuation Management with Optimal Time‐Multiplexed Exit‐Choice Recommendations through Simulation Optimization

Abstract

Exit‐choice behavior significantly influences the performance of egress operations in crowded spaces. Thus, strategically issuing active exit‐choice recommendations that provide clear and concise guidance to pedestrians can help improve evacuation safety and efficiency. This study investigates how to optimally regulate pedestrian density at the exits by generating time‐multiplexed exit‐choice recommendations. The study develops a simulated crowd evacuation scenario with multiple exits, where pedestrians receive periodic sequences of exit‐choice instructions. The optimal period for each instruction is obtained through simulation‐optimization processes with three minimization objectives: evacuation time, cumulative density, and cumulative density variance. First, the effect of collective behaviors on evacuation performance is studied, which justifies the need for active mechanisms to improve exit‐choice decision‐making coordination. Then, several optimal plans for the different objectives are obtained and evaluated regarding evacuation time and cumulative density performance. Finally, the influence of adoption rate and collective commitment to instructions are evaluated. This study suggests that static plans, defined as time‐multiplexed exit‐choice instructions obtained through simulation‐optimization, reasonably represent a first step in the real deployment of intelligent crowd management systems.