Current and future water balance for coupled human-natural systems – Insights from a glacierized catchment in Peru

Motschmann, Alina; Teutsch, Claudia; Huggel, Christian; Seidel, Jochen; León, Christian; Muñoz, Randy; Sienel, Jessica; Drenkhan, Fabián; Weimer-Jehle, Wolfgang

doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101063

Cited by 14 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 75 publications

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“…CIB made its debut in the field of technological forecasting and has been applied in over 100 studies in dozens of fields including energy transitions and climate change research (Schweizer 2020 ; Weimer-Jehle et al 2020 ; Weimer-Jehle 2023 ). Applications are also expanding toward a wider range of policy processes (Stankov et al 2021 ; Kosow et al 2022 ), including in water management (e.g., Schütze et al 2019 ; Motschmann et al 2022 ). However, this relatively new method has evolved within its own community of practice and has yet to become established in SES research, despite its compatibility with SES theory.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring “big picture” scenarios for resilience in social–ecological systems: transdisciplinary cross-impact balances modeling in the Red River Basin

2023

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Climate change is increasing the frequency and the severity of extreme events in river basins around the world. Efforts to build resilience to these impacts are complicated by the social–ecological interactions, cross-scale feedbacks, and diverse actor interests that influence the dynamics of change in social–ecological systems (SESs). In this study, we aimed to explore big-picture scenarios of a river basin under climate change by characterizing future change as emergent from interactions between diverse efforts to build resilience and a complex, cross-scale SES. To do so, we facilitated a transdisciplinary scenario modeling process structured by the cross-impact balances (CIB) method, a semi-quantitative method that applies systems theory to generate internally consistent narrative scenarios from a network of interacting drivers of change. Thus, we also aimed to explore the potential for the CIB method to surface diverse perspectives and drivers of change in SESs. We situated this process in the Red River Basin, a transboundary basin shared by the United States and Canada where significant natural climatic variability is worsened by climate change. The process generated 15 interacting drivers ranging from agricultural markets to ecological integrity, generating eight consistent scenarios that are robust to model uncertainty. The scenario analysis and the debrief workshop reveal important insights, including the transformative changes required to achieve desirable outcomes and the cornerstone role of Indigenous water rights. In sum, our analysis surfaced significant complexities surrounding efforts to build resilience and affirmed the potential for the CIB method to generate unique insights about the trajectory of SESs.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring “big picture” scenarios for resilience in social–ecological systems: transdisciplinary cross-impact balances modeling in the Red River Basin

2023

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The need for energy and clean water resources will exponentially expand in the next years to keep up with rising lifestyle standards, worldwide economic growth, and population growth. 1,2 Fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, and coal) have proven to be effective drivers to support the global energy demand. However, their burning was always regarded as one of the causes of the global warming (GW) problem by raising the concentration of CO 2 and other greenhouse gasses (GHGs) in the atmosphere.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…17,22 The electricity generated from the first innovative and optimized design of the solar chimney power plant (SCPP) was in the range of 100-200 MW. 23 Recent research work on the SCCP technologies focused on (1) developing an accurate mathematical model to optimize the process, (2) proposing system modification, or (3) adding new elements to the SC structure or combining it with other technology (i.e., hybrid systems). These efforts are aimed at improving the SCPP design and feasibility, enhancing the efficiency and performance while reducing the cost, increasing the power production and at a certain time producing additional products (e.g., desalinated water).…”

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A novel hybrid solar chimney power plant: Performance analysis and deployment feasibility

Abdelsalam

Almomani

Ibrahim

2022

Energy Science & Engineering

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This study presents a novel hybrid solar chimney power plant (HSCPP) design. The HSCPP preserves the typical solar chimney power plant (SCPP), with an additional seawater pool at the base and water sprinklers at the top. This new and novel design configuration offers an opportunity to run the system during the daytime as a traditional SCPP and as a downdraft cooling tower at night. The performance of the HSCPP was analyzed in 16 cities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) that span the entire geographical area of the country to select the optimal location for installation. The results showed that the highest annual electrical energy production of 676.20 MWh was achieved in the southern city of Shahrurah. However, the lowest annual electrical energy production of 347.59 MWh was found at Wajh, in the west. The highest annual freshwater production was 143,898 tons at Riyadh, in the center. However, the lowest annual freshwater production was 77,868 tons at Muwayh, in the west. Furthermore, the results showed that the proposed HSCPP increased electrical power production by 55% and freshwater production by 20% when compared to traditional SCPP. In addition, an outstanding reduction in CO2 emissions by approximately 56% was associated with such an application of HSCPP. The performance of the HSCPP is very promising, however, the geographical location to install the HSCPP is performance‐critical. Hence, the optimal locations were found to be from the center to the southern part of the KSA.

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“…Since its release, PISCOt has been applied in numerous areas of research and operation 3,[40][41][42][43][44][45] . Due to the increasing availability of observed data and the need for higher spatial resolution, it is crucial to build a new gridded air temperature product that allows modelling and understanding processes at local scales, e.g., at the catchment level.…”

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confidence: 99%

High-resolution grids of daily air temperature for Peru - the new PISCOt v1.2 dataset

Huerta¹,

Camacho²,

Imfeld³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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This study describes the development of PISCOt (v1.2), an innovative high-spatial resolution (0.01°) daily air temperature dataset for Peru (1981-2020). The development of PISCOt involves four main steps: i) quality control; ii) gap-filling; iii) homogenisation of weather stations; and iv) spatial interpolation. The methodological framework allows the representation of the complex spatial variability of air temperature at a more accurate scale than other national and global products (e.g. PISCOt v1.1, ERA5-Land, TerraClimate, CHIRTS). The technical validation indicates mean absolute errors of less than 1.5 °C at climatological and daily mean scales. The new PISCOt dataset appropriately captures the temporal trends which highlights its usefulness to understand the historical variability of air temperature. For the first time, PISCOt v1.2 provides a suitable and widely applicable baseline at the local and regional level in the face of data scarcity in several regions of Peru for applications related to climate change, water balance studies, or the assessment of ecosystems, among others.

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Current and future water balance for coupled human-natural systems – Insights from a glacierized catchment in Peru

Cited by 14 publications

References 75 publications

Exploring “big picture” scenarios for resilience in social–ecological systems: transdisciplinary cross-impact balances modeling in the Red River Basin

Exploring “big picture” scenarios for resilience in social–ecological systems: transdisciplinary cross-impact balances modeling in the Red River Basin

A novel hybrid solar chimney power plant: Performance analysis and deployment feasibility

High-resolution grids of daily air temperature for Peru - the new PISCOt v1.2 dataset

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