Current-to-final Rank Differences in 24-hour Ultra Cycling: Critical Event Phases, and the Impacts of Team Size and Performance Levels

Abstract

This study investigates the intricate dynamics of rank-order stability by examining the current-to-final rank difference (CFRD) during 24-hour cycling races, especially how different team sizes and performance levels contribute to the temporal trends in CFRD. A comprehensive dataset covering five consecutive years (2019–2023) of a 24-hour cycling race on a 17.9 km repetitive driven road track, encompassing diverse team sizes (solo rider, or teams of 4 and 10), is used. The results indicate significant interactions between time, team size, and performance, with CFRD consistently decreasing across team sizes and performance levels over the race duration. Temporal analysis unveils critical phases with pronounced changes in CFRD, providing nuanced insights into the evolving dynamics of 24-hour races. Notable distinctions emerge between team sizes, with solo riders exhibiting unique patterns. High-performance teams consistently maintain a lower CFRD, exhibiting more predictable outcomes over the race duration. Overall, this study advances our understanding of endurance team cycling, and offers valuable insights for strategic decision making and race optimization.