Cyclone induced storm surge and flood forecasting in the northern Bay of Bengal

Madsen, Henrik; Jakobsen, Flemming

doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2004.03.001

Cited by 117 publications

(59 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…There are many other methods available to simulate costal inundation (depths) (e.g. Bryan et al 2001;Dawson et al 2005;Madsen and Jakobsen 2004;Mastin and Olsen 2002;Nicholls 2002Nicholls , 2004Nicholls et al 2008;Purvis et al 2008;Thumerer et al 2000), but in essence, all of these attempt to predict inundation extents and depths based on some combination of process drivers (such as meteorology, tides, and flood defence design periods) ). There are two main approaches: planar models and hydrodynamic models.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Planar models, such as the one used in this study, use as input the water level of the tide and distribute this over a DEM by means of some kind of flow-connectivity algorithm. For the planning and implementation of protection measures, predictions are typically obtained from hydrodynamic models; for coastal flows, two-dimensional horizontal solutions of the shallow water equations are state of the art (Madsen and Jakobsen 2004;). Such models require accurate topographic and bathymetric data at a high resolution and are computationally demanding.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Coastal inundation and damage exposure estimation: a case study for Jakarta

et al. 2010

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Coastal flooding poses serious threats to coastal areas, and the vulnerability of coastal communities and economic sectors to flooding will increase in the coming decades due to environmental and socioeconomic changes. It is increasingly recognised that estimates of the vulnerability of cities are essential for planning adaptation measures. Jakarta is a case in point, since parts of the city are subjected to regular flooding on a near-monthly basis. In order to assess the current and future coastal flood hazard, we set up a GIS-based flood model of northern Jakarta to simulate inundated area and value of exposed assets. Under current conditions, estimated damage exposure to extreme coastal flood events with return periods of 100 and 1,000 years is high (€4.0 and €5.2 billion, respectively). Under the scenario for 2100, damage exposure associated with these events increases by a factor 4-5, with little difference between low/high sea-level rise scenarios. This increase is mainly due to rapid land subsidence and excludes socioeconomic developments. We also develop a detemporalised inundation scenario for assessing impacts associated with any coastal flood scenario. This allows for the identification of critical points above which large increases in damage exposure can be expected and also for the assessment of adaptation options against hypothetical user-defined levels of change, rather than being bound to a discrete set of a priori scenarios. The study highlights the need for urgent attention to the land subsidence problem; a continuation of the current rate would result in catastrophic increases in damage exposure.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coastal inundation and damage exposure estimation: a case study for Jakarta

et al. 2010

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“…Madsen and Jakobsen (2004) discussed the merits of MIKE 21 model in reproducing the sea-level heights associated with the 1991 Bangladesh storm surge, which caused the deaths of about 140,000 people.…”

Section: Impacts Of Coastal Floodingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coastal flooding: impacts of coupled wave–surge–tide models

Wolf

2008

Nat Hazards

149

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Wind waves and elevated water levels together can cause flooding in low-lying coastal areas, where the water level may be a combination of mean sea level, tides and surges generated by storm events. In areas with a wide continental shelf a travelling external surge may combine with the locally generated surge and waves and there can be significant interaction between the propagation of the tide and surge. Wave height at the coast is controlled largely by water depth so the effect of tides and surges on waves must be also be considered, while waves contribute to the total water level by means of wave setup through radiation stress. These processes are well understood and accurately predicted by models, assuming good bathymetry and wind forcing is available. Other interactions between surges and waves include the processes of surface wind-stress and bottom friction as well as depth and current refraction of waves by surge water levels and currents, and some of the details of these processes are still not well understood. The recent coastal flooding in Myanmar (May 2008) in the Irrawaddy River Delta is an example of the severity of such events, with a surge of over 3m exacerbated by heavy precipitation. Here we review the existing capability for combined modelling of tides, surges and waves, their interactions and the development of coupled models.Keywords: tides, storm surges, wind waves, coastal flooding, wave-current interaction, numerical modelling 1 Coastal Flooding -Impacts of coupled wave-surge-tide models Judith Wolf AbstractWind waves and elevated water levels together can cause flooding in low-lying coastal areas, where the water level may be a combination of mean sea level, tides and surges with storm surges and waves often being generated by the same storm event. In areas with a wide continental shelf a travelling external surge may combine with the locally generated surge and waves and there can be significant interaction between the propagation of the tide and surge. Wave height at the coast is controlled largely by water depth so the effect of tides and surges on waves must be also be considered, while waves contribute to the total water level by means of wave setup through radiation stress. These processes are well understood and accurately predicted by models, assuming good bathymetry and wind forcing is available. Other interactions between surges and waves include the processes of surface wind-stress and bottom friction as well as depth and current refraction of waves by surge water levels and currents, and some of the details of these processes are still not well understood. The recent coastal flooding in Myanmar (May 2008) in the Irrawaddy River Delta is an example of the severity of such events, with a surge of over 3m exacerbated by heavy precipitation. Here we review the existing capability for combined modelling of tides, surges and waves, their interactions and the development of coupled models.

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“…Madsen and Jakobsen 2004;Benavente et al 2006). At times, these factors interact in a complex way to elevate water levels significantly above normal tide level.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Signatures of low-dimensional chaos in hourly water level measurements at coastal site of Mariupol, Ukraine

Khokhlov

Глушков

Loboda

et al. 2007

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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Variations of water levels in ports and estuaries are important for ship guidance and navigation and are influenced by a variety of factors. The hourly data that was collected from the coastal site at the Port of Mariupol, Ukraine during January-December 2005 were analysed with an objective to reveal features of chaotic behaviour. The concepts and methods of chaos theory (average mutual information, correlation dimension, false nearest neighbours, Lyapunov exponents) were applied. The manifestation of low-dimensional chaos was found in the time series. The possibility of nonlinear prediction was concluded.

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Cyclone induced storm surge and flood forecasting in the northern Bay of Bengal

Cited by 117 publications

References 23 publications

Coastal inundation and damage exposure estimation: a case study for Jakarta

Coastal inundation and damage exposure estimation: a case study for Jakarta

Coastal flooding: impacts of coupled wave–surge–tide models

Signatures of low-dimensional chaos in hourly water level measurements at coastal site of Mariupol, Ukraine

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