D2R2: an evidence‐based decision support tool to aid prioritisation of animal health issues for government funding

Gibbens, J. C.; Frost, Andrew; Houston, Charisma; Lester, Houston F.; Gauntlett, F. A.

doi:10.1136/vr.103684

Cited by 17 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…This framework provides a novel way to combine and interpret independent metrics of animal disease impacts. The selected metrics of disease impact were similar in both DISCONTOOLS (18) and D2R2 (17) and were loosely classified as disease spread, impacts on animal and human health and indirect impacts on wider society and international trade. The methodology was implemented over a range of diseases, selected by discussion with policy-makers because the diseases are exotic to Scotland (most are notifiable) and pose a potential threat.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The source of the estimates of disease impact was the DISCONTOOLS project, informed by the Defra D2R2 system. Impact is scored based on 6 sub-categories in three broad categories: The parameters that were derived from DISCONTOOLS and D2R2 (17,18) are described in Tables S1-S3.…”

Section: Disease Impactmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Two methods have been developed for comparing potential impacts directly and consistently between diseases. Defra has developed the Disease briefing, Decision support, Ranking and Risk assessment (D2R2) database (17) and the DISCONTOOLS Project that aims to identify knowledge gaps in diseases (18). Whilst the methods underlying both methods are different, both are essentially based on expert elicitation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Tool for Prioritizing Livestock Disease Threats to Scotland

Bessell

Auty

Roberts³

et al. 2020

Front. Vet. Sci.

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There are a number of disease threats to the livestock of Scotland that are not presently believed to be circulating in the UK. Here, we present the development of a tool for prioritizing resources for livestock disease threats to Scotland by combining a semi-quantitative model of the chance of introduction of different diseases with a semi-quantitative model of disease impact. Eighteen key diseases were identified and then input into a model framework to produce a semi-quantitative estimate of disease priorities. We estimate this through a model of the potential impacts of the infectious diseases in Scotland that is interpreted alongside a pre-existing generic risk assessment model of the risks of incursion of the diseases. The impact estimates are based on key metrics which influence the practical impact of disease. Metrics included are the rate of spread, the disease mitigation factors, impacts on animal welfare and production, the human health risks and the impacts on wider society. These quantities were adjusted for the size of the Scottish livestock population and were weighted using published scores. Of the 18 livestock diseases included, the model identifies highly pathogenic avian influenza, foot and mouth disease in cattle and bluetongue virus in sheep as having the greatest priority in terms of the combination of chance of introduction and disease impact. Disregarding the weighting for livestock populations and comparing equally between industry sectors, the results demonstrate that Newcastle disease and highly pathogenic avian influenza generally have the greatest potential impact. This model provides valuable information for the veterinary and livestock industries in prioritizing resources in the face of many disease threats. The system can easily be adjusted as disease situations evolve.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Disease Impactmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Tool for Prioritizing Livestock Disease Threats to Scotland

Bessell

Auty

Roberts³

et al. 2020

Front. Vet. Sci.

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“…This emphasized the need for decision‐makers to carefully balance resources towards diseases that are causing immediate losses but are likely to have less severe consequences, versus diseases that have the potential to have drastic economic and social impact but are not yet a direct threat. While it is a challenging goal, the benefit provided by an overarching system that includes both endemic and non‐endemic risk organisms is evident (DISCONTOOLS Project, ; Gibbens, Frost, Houston, Lester, & Gauntlett, ; van der Giessen et al., ; Havelaar et al., ; Stebler, Schuepbach‐Regula, Braam, & Falzon, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Creating a framework for the prioritization of biosecurity risks to the New Zealand dairy industry

Muellner¹,

Hodges

Ahlstrom³

et al. 2018

Transbound Emerg Dis

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The New Zealand dairy sector relies on robust biosecurity measures to control and mitigate a wide range of threats to the industry. To optimize the prioritization of organisms and manage the risk they pose to the sector in a transparent and credible way, the Dairy Biosecurity Risk Evaluation Framework (D-BRiEF) was developed. This comprehensive framework was specifically designed for decision support, using a standardized approach to address the full spectrum of biosecurity threats to the sector, including exotic and endemic animal disease organisms, pest plants and insects. D-BRiEF is underpinned by three main processes, namely (i) hazard identification; (ii) multicriteria risk assessment; and (iii) communication for risk management. Expert knowledge and empirical data, including associated uncertainty, are harnessed in a standardized format. Results feed into a probability-impact model that was developed in close collaboration with dairy sector economists to provide overall comparative 10-year quantitative economic impact estimates for each assessed risk organism. A description of the overarching framework, which applies to diverse organism groups, is presented with detailed methodology on both endemic and exotic animal disease risk organisms. Examples of visual outputs are included, although actual ranking results are not reported due to industry confidentiality. D-BRiEF can provide a decision advantage to DairyNZ biosecurity risk managers and sector stakeholders by creating a transparent process that can be interrogated and updated at multiple levels to fully understand the layers of risk posed by different organisms.

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“…to inform which pathogen(s) are most likely to enter the EU, where they are most likely to enter and what scenarios would have the most impact with regards to human or animal health and welfare or trade implications. To address these issues, a number of relative risk ranking tools have previously been developed, such as the EU wide DISCONTOOLS (2016) and the UK specific D2R2 (Gibbens et al, 2016). However, these tools are qualitative and are generally based on chosen criteria rather than a defined quantitative assessment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%