Data Driven Approach to the Dynamics of Import and Export of G7 Countries

Abstract

The dynamics of imports plus exports of 226 product classes by the G7 countries between 1962 and 2000 is described in terms of stochastic differential equations. The model allows interesting comparisons among the different economies related to the compositions of the national baskets. Synthetic solutions can also be used to estimate hidden and unexploited growth potentials. These prerogatives are strictly connected with the fact that a network structure is at the basis of the model. Such a network expresses the mutual influences of different products through resource transfers, and is a key ingredient producing cooperative growth effects which can be quantified and distinguished from those generated by deterministic drifts and representing direct resource inputs. An analysis of this network, which differs substantially from those previously considered within the economic complexity approach, allows to estimate the centrality of different products in each national basket, highlighting the most essential commodities for each economy. Solutions of the model give the possibility of performing counterfactual analyses aimed at estimating how much the growth of each country could have profited from a general strengthening, or weakening, of the links in the same products network.

Entropic measure unveils country competitiveness and product specialization in the World trade web

“…A preliminar analysis along these lines 5 , 20 has already highlighted a strong bond connecting the entropic diversity of a country and the hierarchy of products to a dynamical model regulating the yearly evolution of single exports for every country. For the time evolution of the basket compositions, the present authors have recently developed a statistical mechanics model 4 – 6 , calibrated on the same database used here, which clarifies the non-equilibrium character of its dynamics. The combined use of this model with the entropic complexity analysis offers in perspective possibilities of predictions going beyond standard regression analysis.…”

“…One of the aims of the economic complexity approach 1 – 6 is that of establishing consistent rankings of countries in terms of productive efficiency and of products in terms of sophistication 7 , 8 , with the final goal of estimating both measurable and hidden growth potentials of the economies. These rankings should result from an analysis of bipartite networks which connect the countries to their products.…”

Entropic measure unveils country competitiveness and product specialization in the World trade web

“…A preliminar analysis along these lines 5,20 has already highlighted a strong bond connecting the entropic diversity of a country and the hierarchy of products to a dynamical model regulating the yearly evolution of single exports for every country. For the time evolution of the basket compositions, the present authors have recently developed a statistical mechanics model [4][5][6] , calibrated on the same database used here, which clarifies the non-equilibrium character of its dynamics. The combined use of this model with the entropic complexity analysis offers in perspective possibilities of predictions going beyond standard regression analysis.…”

“…One of the aims of the economic complexity approach [1][2][3][4][5][6] is that of establishing consistent rankings of countries in terms of productive efficiency and of products in terms of sophistication 7,8 , with the final goal of estimating both measurable and hidden growth potentials of the economies. These rankings should result from an analysis of bipartite networks which connect the countries to their products.…”

Research on the Market Positioning and Suitable Cargo Value Range of “Yiwu-Xinjiang-Europe” Train Based on Data Model

“…The spatio-temporal dynamics of the coordinated development are predicted by using the dissipative structure theory and gray correlation theory to establish the coordinated discriminant, and the accuracy of the trade test is predicted for the opening volume, freight volume, total amount and total weight. As the original series input, the spatio-temporal dynamics of the coordinated trade development are traced, the coordinated development changes of the China-Europe train and the China-Europe trade development system are analyzed, and the prediction model of the container volume of the "Yi-Xinjiang-Europe" train is finally determined [21][22].…”