Data-driven approaches demonstrate legacy N accumulation in Upper Mississippi River Basin groundwater

Abstract

Increases in nitrogen (N) fertilizer application, livestock densities, and human population over the last century have led to substantial increases in nitrate contamination. While increases in riverine N loads are well-documented, the total magnitude of N accumulation in groundwater remains unknown. Here we provide a first data-driven estimate of N mass accumulation in groundwater within the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB), an area of intensive row-crop agriculture and the primary contributor to Gulf of Mexico hypoxia. Using approximately 49,000 well nitrate concentration values and a suite of geospatial predictors, we developed a Random Forest model to produce gridded predictions of depth-varying nitrate concentrations. Our results suggest that approximately 15 Tg of N (328 ± 167 kg-N ha-1) is currently stored in UMRB groundwater recharged over the last 50 years. For context, we compare these predictions to those from a lumped statistical model, which predicts accumulation of 387 ± 133 kg-N ha-1, as well as to a simple N mass balance model of the UMRB, which puts an upper bound on accumulation of approximately 1,000 kg-N ha-1 (1967-2017). These findings highlight the importance of considering legacy N when forecasting future water quality, as N in the subsurface will continue to impair drinking water quality and elevate surface water N concentrations for decades to come.