Death scares: How potential work-migrants infer mortality rates from migrant deaths

Abstract

This paper studies how potential work migrants infer mortality rates from incidents of migrant deaths. In the context of migrant workers from Nepal to Malaysia and the Persian Gulf countries, the study finds that the death of a migrant from a district lowers migration outflows in subsequent months. Furthermore, this migration response is stronger when there have been more migrant deaths in recent months. Using relevant elasticities, this study finds that the migration response implies large changes in mortality rates perceived by potential migrants. Models of learning fallacies better explain the observed responses than a standard model of rational Bayesian learning.

Raising Awareness About the Risk of Irregular Migration: Quasi‐Experimental Evidence from Guinea

“…The general finding that context information matters for migration choices is consistent with emerging experimental evidence from different settings (Tjaden and Dunsch 2021;Shrestha 2019Shrestha , 2020Bah and Batista 2018). The results are also consistent with general rational-choice models of migration decisions which assume that risk perceptions may condition the likelihood of expected benefits of migration (e.g., income) to materialize (Todaro and Maruszko 1987;Massey et al 1993).…”

“…Both studies find that providing information on job opportunities elsewhere does not have any impact on migration behavior. Shrestha (2019) highlights the importance of access to information for potential migrants' expectations and their subsequent (internal) migration decisions using a randomized controlled trial (RCT) in Nepal. Findings suggest that providing information on mortality rates during the migration journey affects subsequent migration decisions.…”

“…Providing information on wages at destination reduces expected wages and, in turn, reduces migration intentions. It is important to note that mortality rates as used by Shrestha (2019) are prone to measurement error as actual mortality is likely to be vastly underestimated based on available sources, particularly in the context of irregular migration from Africa to Europe (Black 2020).…”

“…Overall, the study aims to contribute to the limited evidence based on information and awareness-raising treatments for potential migrants (Shrestha 2019(Shrestha , 2020Tjaden and Dunsch 2021;Mesplé-Somps and Nilsson 2020). To the best of our knowledge, this study is one of the first (quasiexperimental) studies to evaluate the effectiveness of large-scale campaigns on irregular migration.…”

Risky journeys – Risk and decision‐making among potential irregular migrants in Senegal and Guinea

“…Providing information on the risk of unemployment at destination, for example, reduces the likelihood to choose migration (in the lab game). Shrestha (2019) -in one of the few experimental studies conducted outside the lab -highlights the importance of access to information for potential migrants' expectations and their subsequent (internal) migration decisions using a randomized controlled trial in Nepal. Findings suggest that providing information on mortality rates during the migration journey affects subsequent migration decisions.…”