Debris flow modelling and hazard assessment for a glacier area: a case study in Barsem, Tajikistan

Yılmaz, Kutay; Dinçer, Ali Ersin; Kalpakci, Volkan; Öztürk, Şevki

doi:10.1007/s11069-022-05654-8

Cited by 9 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Central Asia, part of the TSM range, experiences significant debris flow hazards. For instance, Bassam, Tajikistan, witnessed glacial debris flows due to heavy rainfalls and increased temperatures caused by global warming [8]. In addition, glacial debris flows and moraine-dammed glacial lakes in the mountainous areas of southeastern Kazakhstan pose a greater future threat [15].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These methods are restricted by linear assumptions and low-order attributes, and may not provide a high degree of precision when applied to high-dimensional data. (4) Mathematical-physical models [8], such as finite element, discrete element, and finite volume methods based on the theory of continuous and discontinuous media, were used. However, the modeling and physical parameter preparation require significant labor and are only appropriate for a small scale.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk Assessment and Analysis of Its Influencing Factors of Debris Flows in Typical Arid Mountain Environment: A Case Study of Central Tien Shan Mountains, China

Li,

Wu,

Chen

et al. 2023

Remote Sensing

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The Tien Shan Mountain range connects Central Asia with northwestern China and is a crucial transport junction between East and West Asia. It is a common location for regional debris flows, which pose a significant risk to ecological security and the safety of people and property. Nevertheless, limited knowledge exists about the distribution of disaster risks and the impacted populations. This study uses advanced machine learning techniques to identify the key natural and social factors influencing these hazards and incorporates the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) to assess societal vulnerability. The outcomes demonstrate that (1) the debris flow hazard in the Tien Shan Mountain area is primarily governed by the geological structure, which dictates the material source and, in turn, dictates the onset of debris flows. (2) The vulnerability demonstrates a high spatial tendency in the north and a low one in the south, with evident spatial clustering characteristics. (3) A total of 19.13% of the study area is classified as high-hazard, with specific distribution zones including the northern foothills of the Tien Shan Mountains, the low-mountain zones of the southern foothills of the Tien Shan Mountains, and the Yili Valley zone. This holistic approach offers valuable insights into the spatial distribution of risks, aiding in prioritizing disaster preparedness and mitigation efforts. Also, our findings and conclusions are beneficial for local decision makers to allocate resources effectively and promote sustainable development practices in the region.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Assessment and Analysis of Its Influencing Factors of Debris Flows in Typical Arid Mountain Environment: A Case Study of Central Tien Shan Mountains, China

Li,

Wu,

Chen

et al. 2023

Remote Sensing

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“…This can be achieved through the application of numerical methods [55][56][57], which specifically focus on seismic activities. Additionally, considerations should extend to factors such as erosion and flood risks [37], as well as potential landslides and debris flows [58]. Moreover, to address environmental concerns, it is advisable to factor in carbon emissions [8,59] during the site evaluation process.…”

Section: 1mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Novel Procedure for the AHP Method for the Site Selection of Solar PV Farms

Demir,

Dinçer,

Yılmaz

2024

International Journal of Energy Research

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This study proposes a novel approach to enhance the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) for the selection of suitable sites for solar photovoltaic (PV) farms. This approach is particularly beneficial when it is possible to establish a predefined objective relation in the final weights of the AHP method. The methodology focuses on achieving this predefined relation introducing a systematic revision of the constants of related constraints. In this study, the costs of constructing a unit transmission line and road in the Kayseri Province are objectively related, and the initial constant matrix of the AHP method is iteratively revised until the relation of the final weights converges to the predefined one. The suitability of solar PV farm locations is classified into five classes, revealing approximately 28% (40-100% of suitability) of the province as favorably suitable and designating about 67% as restricted zones. The findings reveal notable distinctions between the revised weights and those derived from the conventional AHP method. The disparity in weights for various constraints varies from 13.5% to 7.2%. Consequently, the alterations in the area of suitability regions range from 3.4% to 50%. The revision of AHP weights results in a reduction in higher-suitability areas, coupled with a significant expansion in the region exhibiting lower suitability. Notably, the extent of change in the suitability map increases when the difference in ratios between two criteria obtained from the AHP and the predefined objective relation is high. The proposed method demonstrates its applicability in regions like Kayseri where an objective relation between criteria can be established. Given the inherent subjectivity of the AHP method, the proposed procedure becomes essential to attain more objective weights. Since the methodology objectively adjusts weights based on known ratios, it increases the accuracy and reliability of site selection studies.

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“…These emissions data are incorporated into the AHP matrix, along with other criteria. The results of the AHP are then input into the ArcMap, where GIS operations are performed (Yılmaz et al 2022), resulting in the final suitability map shown in Fig. 5.…”

Section: Suitability Map For Wind Turbinesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wind farm site selection using GIS-based multicriteria analysis with Life cycle assessment integration

Demir,

Dinçer,

Çiftçi

et al. 2024

Earth Sci Inform

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The sustainability of wind power plants depends on the selection of suitable installation locations, which should consider not only economic and technical factors including manufacturing and raw materials, but also issues pertaining to the environment. In the present study, a novel methodology is proposed to determine the suitable locations for wind turbine farms by analyzing from the environmental perspective. In the methodology, the life cycle assessment (LCA) of wind turbines is incorporated into the decision process. The criteria are ranked using analytical hierarchy process (AHP). The study area is chosen as the western region of Türkiye. The obtained suitability map reveals that wind speed is not the sole criterion for selecting a site for wind turbine farms; other factors, such as bird migration paths, distance from urban areas and land use, are also crucial. The results also reveal that constructing wind power plants in the vicinity of İzmir, Çanakkale, Istanbul, and Balıkesir in Türkiye can lead to a reduction in emissions. İzmir and its surrounding area show the best environmental performance with the lowest CO2 per kilowatt-hour (7.14 g CO2 eq/kWh), to install a wind turbine due to its proximity to the harbor and steel factory across the study area. Çanakkale and the northwest region of Türkiye, despite having high wind speeds, are less environmentally favorable than İzmir, Balıkesir, and Istanbul. The findings of LCA reveal that the nacelle and rotor components of the wind turbine contribute significantly (43–97%) to the environmental impact categories studied, while the tower component (0–36%) also has an impact.

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Debris flow modelling and hazard assessment for a glacier area: a case study in Barsem, Tajikistan

Cited by 9 publications

References 28 publications

Risk Assessment and Analysis of Its Influencing Factors of Debris Flows in Typical Arid Mountain Environment: A Case Study of Central Tien Shan Mountains, China

Risk Assessment and Analysis of Its Influencing Factors of Debris Flows in Typical Arid Mountain Environment: A Case Study of Central Tien Shan Mountains, China

A Novel Procedure for the AHP Method for the Site Selection of Solar PV Farms

Wind farm site selection using GIS-based multicriteria analysis with Life cycle assessment integration

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