Debris Flow Scale Prediction Based on Correlation Analysis and Improved Support Vector Machine

Abstract

The occurrence of debris flows are a significant threat to human lives and property. Estimating the debris flow scale is a crucial parameter for assessing disaster losses in such events. Currently, the commonly used method for estimating debris flow runoff relies on fitting techniques, which often yield low prediction accuracy and limited data representation capabilities. Addressing these challenges, this study proposes an improved grey wolf algorithm optimized support vector machine prediction model. The model’s effectiveness is validated using data from 72 debris flow events in Beichuan County. The results demonstrate a prediction accuracy of 95.9% using this approach, indicating its strong predictive capabilities for debris flow scale. Additionally, it is observed that the basin area, the basin relative, and the main channel length are the key factors influencing debris flow scale in Beichuan County.