Debris flows triggered from non-stationary glacier lake outbursts: the case of the Teztor Lake complex (Northern Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan)

Erokhin, Sergey; Zaginaev, Vitalii; Meleshko, A.; Ruíz-Villanueva, Virginia; Petrakov, Dmitry; Chernomorets, Sergey; Viskhadzhieva, Karina Saidovna; Tutubalina, Olga; Stoffel, Markus

doi:10.1007/s10346-017-0862-3

Cited by 31 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…The high Melton index 0.6 [22] shows, that the Aksay Valley is a debris flow-dominated watershed and the average stream gradient calculated from archive 1:25,000 scale topographic maps is 0.17. The parameter of stream slope is very important and shows the ability of a valley to transform a flow process into debris flow processes [26]. The Aksay moraine-glacier complex is among the most dynamically developing glacier complexes in Kyrgyzstan.…”

Section: Study Sitementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Three scenarios of the possible debris flow magnitudes are considered, the size variation based on archival information on outbursts events in the Aksay Valley [22,24,25,37] and incorporating data about recent outbursts of similar lakes located in the neighboring Teztor Valley [26,39]. Three peak flow discharge rates options for the future were considered: 300, 600 and 900 m 3 s −1 .…”

Section: An Area Potentially Affected By a Debris Flowmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Development of a Potentially Hazardous Pro-Glacial Lake in Aksay Valley, Kyrgyz Range, Northern Tien Shan

et al. 2019

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Debris flows caused by glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are common hazards in mountain environments. The risk posed by glacial lake outburst hazards is particularly evaluated where the lower reaches of catchments are populated. A potentially dangerous lake has been identified adjacent to the Uchitel Glacier in Northern Tien Shan. This lake formed between 1988 and 1994 on the site of a retreated glacier in the upper part of the Aksay Valley. In this study we consider the possibility of an outburst of this pro-glacial lake in the future. The study involved bathymetry mapping of the lake, detailed profile sections of the valley, flow rate measurements on the Aksay river, and monitoring of the lake development using satellite images. Modelling of secondary debris flow inundation heights and hazard footprints has been undertaken. The outburst of this lake could cause powerful debris flows posing a threat to permanent residents living downstream, in the Ala-Archa Valley. Monitoring of the lake over the past ten years suggests certain changes in the runoff to the subsurface, and an increase in lake depth is observed. Glacial lakes with subsurface drainage are considered to be the most hazardous type as the knowledge of drainage channels functioning is still very limited and, thus, the timing of an outburst is hard to predict. Development of monitoring approaches to support forecasting of these hazards is of paramount importance to safety in mountain territories globally.

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Section: Study Sitementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: An Area Potentially Affected By a Debris Flowmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of a Potentially Hazardous Pro-Glacial Lake in Aksay Valley, Kyrgyz Range, Northern Tien Shan

et al. 2019

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“…The 2012 outburst from Teztor lake, situated in a neighbouring valley at similar altitude as Adygine, serves as an example. When filled, the lake has a volume of 70 000 m 3 and is usually drained by a subsurface channel with a flow rate of a few m 3 s -1 (Erokhin et al, 2017). Nevertheless, the channel's capacity enlarged and the 2012 flood changed into a debris flow of estimated 300 m 3 s -1 , caused dismay among the capital's 20 inhabitants and material damage of approx.…”

Section: Influence Of a Glacier On Lake's Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, they can hold sufficient volumes of water and cause an 15 outburst flood. In many cases, such lakes are even non-stationary, filling-up only when subsurface channel gets blocked, often in times of increased inflow due to snow or ice melting (Erokhin et al, 2017). The 2012 outburst from Teztor lake, situated in a neighbouring valley at similar altitude as Adygine, serves as an example.…”

Section: Influence Of a Glacier On Lake's Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…From the latest examples, Narama et al (2017) studied supraglacial lakes in the Central Tien Shan, focusing on hydrological parameters of these small-sized and often temporary lakes, and Erokhin et al (2017) compared two outbursts from a nonstationary glacial lake and presented hazards linked to lakes that form in an intramorainic depression. The phenomenon of 30 repeated debris flow activity triggered by glacier meltwater release, was studied by Solomina et al (1994) Zaginaev et al (2016) by dendrochronological methods.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Development of glacial lakes and evaluation of related outburst hazard at Adygine glacier complex, Northern Tien Shan

Falátková

Šobr

Jánský

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. Formation and development of glacial lakes in mountain regions is one of the consequences of glacier recession. 10Such lakes may drain partially or completely when the stability of their dam is disturbed. We presented a case study from Central-Asian mountain range of Tien Shan, a north-oriented tributary valley Adygine, where a glacier retreat resulted in formation of several generations of lakes. The aim of this study was to analyse past development of different types of glacial lakes influenced by the same glacier, to project site's future development, and to evaluate the hazard of individual lakes with an outlook for expected future change. We addressed the problem with a combination of methods, namely bathymetric, 15 geodetic, and geophysical on-site survey, satellite image and DEM analysis, and modelling of glacier runoff evolution. Based on the case of glacial lakes of varied age and type, we demonstrate the significance of glacier ice in lake's development. Lake 3, which is in contact with glacier terminus, has changed rapidly over the last decade, expanding both in area and depth and increasing its volume more than 13 times (7 800 m 3 to 106 000 m 3 ). Hydrological connections and routing of glacier meltwater proved to be an important factor as well, since most lakes in the region are drained by subsurface channels. Within the hazard 20 evaluation of lakes, we highlighted the importance of field data which can provide crucial information on lake stability. In our case, the understanding of site's hydrological system and its regime helped to categorise Lake 2 into low outburst hazard, while Lake 1 and Lake 3 were labelled as medium hazard lakes. Further development of the site will be driven mainly by rising air temperature and increasingly negative glacier mass balance. All three scenarios predict a significant glacier area decrease by 2050, specifically leaving 73.2 % (A1B), 62.3 % (A2), and 55.6 % (B1) of the 2012 glacier extent. The glacier retreat will be 25 accompanied by changes in glacier runoff with first peak expected around the year 2020.

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Geomorphic process chains in high-mountain regions - A review and classification approach for natural hazards assessment

Mani

Allen

Evans

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Human populations and infrastructure in high mountain regions are exposed to a wide range of natural hazards, the frequency, magnitude, and location of which are extremely sensitive to climate change. In cases where several hazards can occur simultaneously or where the occurrence of one event will change the disposition of another, assessments need to account for complex process chains. While process chains are widely recognized as a major threat, no systematic analysis has been undertaken. We therefore assemble a broad set of process chain events from across the globe to establish new understanding on the factors that directly trigger or alter the disposition for subsequent events in the chain. Based on this new understanding, we derive a novel classification scheme and parameters to aid natural hazard assessment. Most process chains in high mountains are commonly associated with glacier retreat or permafrost degradation. Regional differences exist in the nature and rate of sequencing-some process chains are almost instantaneous, while other linkages are delayed. Process chains involving rapid sequences are difficult to predict or mitigate, and impacts are often devastating. We demonstrate that process chains are initialized most frequently as threshold failures, being the result of gradual landscape weakening and not due to the occurrence of a distinct trigger. The co-occurrence of fluvial processes or activation of sediment deposition areas increases the reach of process chains. Climate change is therefore expected to increase the reach of events in the future, as glacial environments transform into sediment-rich paraglacial and fluvial landscapes.

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Debris flows triggered from non-stationary glacier lake outbursts: the case of the Teztor Lake complex (Northern Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan)

Cited by 31 publications

References 48 publications

Development of a Potentially Hazardous Pro-Glacial Lake in Aksay Valley, Kyrgyz Range, Northern Tien Shan

Development of a Potentially Hazardous Pro-Glacial Lake in Aksay Valley, Kyrgyz Range, Northern Tien Shan

Development of glacial lakes and evaluation of related outburst hazard at Adygine glacier complex, Northern Tien Shan

Geomorphic process chains in high-mountain regions - A review and classification approach for natural hazards assessment

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