Decadal Climate Variability and Cross-Scale Interactions: ICCL 2013 Expert Assessment Workshop

Holbrook, Neil J.; Li, Jianping; Collins, Matthew; Lorenzo, Emanuele Di; Jin, Fei‐Fei; Knutson, Thomas R.; Latif, Mojib; Li, Chongyin; Power, Scott B.; Huang, Rhonghui; Wu, Guoxiong

doi:10.1175/bams-d-13-00201.1

Cited by 11 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…ENSO properties vary on decadal and longer time scales (e.g., Holbrook et al 2014;Wittenberg 2015;Power and Smith 2007) through changes in air-sea feedbacks linked to noise, chaotic dynamics, and slow variations in the mean state (e.g., Wittenberg 2009;Newman et al 2011;Wittenberg et al 2014;Zhao et al 2016). While the mean-state variations are thought to be in part a rectified effect of changes in ENSO (e.g., Ogata et al 2013), they also affect the interactions between ENSO and other modes of variability such as the SAM (e.g.…”

Section: Low Frequency Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics and Predictability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation: An Australian Perspective on Progress and Challenges

Santoso

Hendon

Watkins

et al. 2019

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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El Niño and La Niña, the warm and cold phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), cause significant year-to-year disruptions in global climate, including in the atmosphere, oceans, and cryosphere. Australia is one of the countries where its climate, including droughts and flooding rains, is highly sensitive to the temporal and spatial variations of ENSO. The dramatic impacts of ENSO on the environment, society, health, and economies worldwide make the application of reliable ENSO predictions a powerful way to manage risks and resources. An improved understanding of ENSO dynamics in a changing climate has the potential to lead to more accurate and reliable ENSO predictions by facilitating improved forecast systems. This motivated an Australian national workshop on ENSO dynamics and prediction that was held in Sydney, Australia, in November 2017. This workshop followed the aftermath of the 2015/16 extreme El Niño, which exhibited different characteristics to previous extreme El Niños and whose early evolution since 2014 was challenging to predict. This essay summarizes the collective workshop perspective on recent progress and challenges in understanding ENSO dynamics and predictability and improving forecast systems. While this essay discusses key issues from an Australian perspective, many of the same issues are important for other ENSO-affected countries and for the international ENSO research community.

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Section: Low Frequency Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics and Predictability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation: An Australian Perspective on Progress and Challenges

Santoso

Hendon

Watkins

et al. 2019

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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“…In line with the great volume of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) oceans, the South Pacific Ocean exhibits prominent decadal climate variability (e.g., Reason 2000). That said, our understanding of Pacific and in particular South Pacific decadal variability and predictability has been limited, despite this being an emerging area of substantial interest and active research (Meehl et al 2014;Holbrook et al 2014;Power et al 2017). The lack of consistent long-term observations has in part led to less attention being drawn to the South Pacific.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

South Pacific Decadal Climate Variability and Potential Predictability

2019

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The South Pacific decadal oscillation (SPDO) characterizes the Southern Hemisphere contribution to the Pacific-wide interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) and is analogous to the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) centered in the North Pacific. In this study, upper ocean variability and potential predictability of the SPDO is examined in HadISST data and an atmosphere-forced ocean general circulation model. The potential predictability of the IPO-related variability is investigated in terms of both the fractional contribution made by the decadal component in the South, tropical and North Pacific Oceans and in terms of a doubly integrated first-order autoregressive (AR1) model. Despite explaining a smaller fraction of the total variance, we find larger potential predictability of the SPDO relative to the PDO. We identify distinct local drivers in the western subtropical South Pacific, where nonlinear baroclinic Rossby wave–topographic interactions act to low-pass filter decadal variability. In particular, we show that the Kermadec Ridge in the southwest Pacific enhances the decadal signature more prominently than anywhere else in the Pacific basin. Applying the doubly integrated AR1 model, we demonstrate that variability associated with the Pacific–South American pattern is a critically important atmospheric driver of the SPDO via a reddening process analogous to the relationship between the Aleutian low and PDO in the North Pacific—albeit that the relationship in the South Pacific appears to be even stronger. Our results point to the largely unrecognized importance of South Pacific processes as a key source of decadal variability and predictability.

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“…As with other parts of the globe, internally generated climate variability is a major element of SH MDCV (Kirtman et al, 2013). Major components of internal variability for the Southern Hemisphere are decadal variations in ENSO, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO, Garreaud and Battisti, 1999;Power et al, 1999;Salinger et al, 2001;Folland et al, 2002;Wu and Hsieh, 2003;Holbrook et al, 2011;Christensen et al, 2013;Kosaka and Xie, 2013;England et al, 2014;Holbrook et al, 2014;Watanabe et al, 2014;Henley et al, 2015;, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM (Shiotani, 1990;Thompson et al, 2000;Watterson, 2009;Pohl et al, 2009;Yuan and Yonekura, 2011;Jones et al, 2016), and the Indian Ocean Dipole.…”

Section: Causes Of Sh MDCVmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards the prediction of multi-year to decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere

Power¹,

Saurral²,

Chung³

et al. 2017

PAGES Mag

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Decadal Climate Variability and Cross-Scale Interactions: ICCL 2013 Expert Assessment Workshop

Cited by 11 publications

References 4 publications

Dynamics and Predictability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation: An Australian Perspective on Progress and Challenges

Dynamics and Predictability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation: An Australian Perspective on Progress and Challenges

South Pacific Decadal Climate Variability and Potential Predictability

Towards the prediction of multi-year to decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere

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