Decision‐making Models, Decision Support, and Problem Solving

Lehto, Mark R.; Nanda, Gaurav

doi:10.1002/9781119636113.ch6

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 271 publications

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“…The first involves recency , wherein people overweight recent information, and saliency (Hogarth and Einhorn 1992, Lehto et al. 2012), wherein people overweight information that is easier to retrieve from memory (Lehto et al. 2012, Tversky and Kahneman 1974).…”

Section: Case Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…2012), wherein people overweight information that is easier to retrieve from memory (Lehto et al. 2012, Tversky and Kahneman 1974). The cognitive part involves estimation of the likelihood of the adverse event (in this case, inventory shortage), and the behavioral part involves underweighting or overweighting that event (Barron and Yechiam 2009).…”

Section: Case Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Crying Wolf and a Knowing Wink: A Behavioral Study of Order Inflation and Discounting in Supply Chains

Niranjan

Ghosalya

Gavirneni

2022

Production and Operations Management

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T wo field case studies uncover information discounting in supply chains, which manifests in the form of schedule padding and order inflation. Buyers often exaggerate the urgency and quantity of their needs ("crying wolf"). However, both buyers and suppliers eliminate old, inflated orders from their behavioral ordering/supply system implicitly ("knowing wink") even though they exist in the hyper-rational ordering system represented by the ERP system. This behavior results in (and from) low credibility of information exchanged between the buyers and suppliers and their subsequent actions, and settles in a suboptimal equilibrium. Eye tracking experiments based on these case studies unpack the psychophysiological mechanisms behind this behavior, specifically, how decision makers consider past UnFilled Orders under different experimental conditions. We find that merely improving the supplier behavior does not help: information discounting reduces only when we sensitize the buyer to the improvement in the supplier behavior. However, this comes with no financial performance improvements; performance improves by further educating the buyers of the optimal target inventory.

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Section: Case Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Case Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Crying Wolf and a Knowing Wink: A Behavioral Study of Order Inflation and Discounting in Supply Chains

Niranjan

Ghosalya

Gavirneni

2022

Production and Operations Management

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“…Descriptive models provide accounts of actual decision processes followed by people and committees. Normative models indicate how the processes should be structured, based on the consistent development of requirements posited as axioms (Lehto et al, 2012;Davis et al, 2005). Models created to provide guidelines that explicitly account for decision-makers' cognitive and informational limitation are sometimes viewed as a distinct category and labeled as prescriptive (French et al, 2009).…”

Section: Decision-makingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Untitled

2022

BPB

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The implementation of automated solutions in manufacturing commonly involves substantial investments in terms of both human and financial resources, and it exposes the firms to the risk of substantial losses if the expected benefits fail to materialize. It is therefore important that decisions related to automated solutions are well supported. The maturity level differs across industry sectors, and the wood products industry is lagging behind in some respects. The purpose of this paper is to explore the potential challenges the wood products industry is facing related to automation decisions when designing manufacturing systems and suggest strategies that can support such decisions, with inspiration from another industrial sector. A multiple case study was conducted, involving a development project carried out in the wood products industry and another in the presumably more mature automotive industry. Automation decisions were studied in the different phases prior to the implementation of the physical manufacturing system. The findings showed both similarities and differences between the development projects. For example, in both development projects, it was decided to reach out to automation suppliers for automation technology acquisition. However, the decision on to which degree to collaborate with the automation suppliers differed. Based on the similarities and differences pointed out, ideas were put forward that might support the wood products industry.

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“…Choosing a restaurant to eat on a regular basis may be a quick decision but occasions such as medical decisions about serious health problems or buying a house occurs rarely in a lifetime, the decision making process takes longer than simpler decisions. 1 Decision making is a complex process and individuals deploy several techniques to achieve a conclusion. In their study, Scott and Bruce proposed four major decision styles: (i) rational decision making style, (ii) intuitive decision making style, (iii) dependent decision making style and (iv) avoidant decision making style.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Naturalistic Decision Making: Original Research on Experience and Personality Traits of Child Services Professionals

HÜRMAN¹,

ZİYALAR²

2022

Turkiye Klinikleri J Foren Sci Leg Med

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The focus on decision making research has moved from rational decision-making processes to naturalistic decision making since it investigates how people make decisions in real life settings. For field professionals working with children, it is often very difficult to use rational decision-making styles due to the ever-changing social world and interactions, rather than the physical world. For this reason, decision making styles of field professionals working with children have been explored. Also it was inteded to provide an insight about factors such as empathy, anxiety and stress that might affect decision making styles. Material and Methods: One hundred eighty-eight field professionals working with children and adolescents were recruited for the study. Participants read scenarios and filled out forms to determine their decision-making styles and personality traits. Results: The findings revealed that participants employing rational decision-making styles have higher accuracy in scenarios and experience levels in terms of years significantly affects the accuracy. In terms of personality traits empathy has an effect on both rational and naturalistic decision-making styles. Conclusion: Naturalistic decision-making abilities of individuals are due to situations that are recognized by them in accordance with the literature. These abilities lead individuals to recognize schemas and patterns and also to perform mental simulations. It can be concluded that the pattern recognition partly constitutes intuitiveness, while mental simulations constitute the rational part.

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Decision‐making Models, Decision Support, and Problem Solving

Cited by 5 publications

References 271 publications

Crying Wolf and a Knowing Wink: A Behavioral Study of Order Inflation and Discounting in Supply Chains

Crying Wolf and a Knowing Wink: A Behavioral Study of Order Inflation and Discounting in Supply Chains

Untitled

Naturalistic Decision Making: Original Research on Experience and Personality Traits of Child Services Professionals

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