Decoupling for Carbon Neutrality: An Industrial Structure Perspective from Qinghai, China over 1990–2021

Abstract

Carbon neutrality is urgent as rapidly emerging economies aggravate their share of global energy demand. In China, the energy structure is dominated by fossil fuels, but it varies significantly across provinces. As an indicator of carbon neutrality, previous studies of decoupling between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth focused at the national and sector levels in China. However, they overlook the role of industrial structure in decoupling at the provincial level. In this light, the following paper focuses on Qinghai Province, analyzing decoupling and its influencing factors for achieving carbon neutrality from an industrial structure perspective over 1990–2021. It uses the Tapio decoupling model to evaluate decoupling states and the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition to evaluate the influencing factors. A Data Envelopment Analysis model of super-efficiency Slacks-Based Measure is used to evaluate the decarbonization efficiency. The study finds that the overall trend shifted from weak to strong decoupling. Strong decoupling dominated the primary industry while weak decoupling dominated the secondary and tertiary industries. Economic growth negatively impacted overall decoupling, while population had a marginal effect. Energy structure and intensity generally promoted decoupling. Additionally, the overall mean efficiency of decarbonization was 0.95, led by the tertiary industry. The paper concludes by discussing policy implications.