Deliberation Platform for Energy Transition Policies: How to Make Complex Things Simple

Abstract

The energy transition from inefficient fossil-based to sustainable energy systems can face various lock-ins. There are no pathways that are free of stress. However, many routes are possible. A good understanding of the dynamic behavior of systems is crucial, and proper support tools are needed to assess the outcomes of every selected pathway. This study aims to develop an Internet-based interface tool for the national energy simulation model as a tool for a “hybrid forum”; study energy transition lock-ins in one of the Eastern European countries; and apply the interface tool to study different pathways to Latvia’s climate and energy goals. System dynamics are used to reach the goals of the study. A causal loop diagram is applied to study feedback loops and lock-ins, a stock-and-flow structure is used to build a simulation model, and a user interface tool is built on top of it. The results show that the developed interface tool is user-friendly and can be used as a discussion platform. The results from the case study reveal how the soft power of Russia can lock in the energy transition in Eastern European countries by creating policy choices with additive effects and what pathways towards energy transition can be used to lock-out.

review of social dynamics in complex energy systems models

“…Most models were simulated up to 2050, given the year's relevance for climate action plans as a landmark for achieving a net-zero global economy [38]. Regarding model development, only Blumberga et al [65] and Strapasson et al [66] mentioned the performance of workshops to gather insights on systems structures and stakeholders' expectations. Concerning the employment of models to aid policy-making, only Blumberga et al [65] reported on the development of an open Internetbased policy-aiding tool.…”

“…Residential energy demand, in particular, was calculated through exogenous urbanisation rates and household income [58]. From a technological perspective, demand was also influenced by the share of energy efficient and inefficient consumers [65]. Energy efficiency interventions are presented in Figure 3 as a A review of social aspects integration in system dynamics energy systems models result of technological development and behaviour changes [65].…”

“…From a technological perspective, demand was also influenced by the share of energy efficient and inefficient consumers [65]. Energy efficiency interventions are presented in Figure 3 as a A review of social aspects integration in system dynamics energy systems models result of technological development and behaviour changes [65]. Information campaigns influenced the latter.…”

“…Additionally, different actors (e.g., households, infrastructure investors and providers, energy suppliers, and governments) and sectors (e.g., residential, industrial, and agricultural) were represented in the models, which highlights the potential of SD models to incorporate the heterogeneity of actors in the energy transition [31]. Nevertheless, as Blumberga et al [65] discusses, it is necessary to pay attention to the political dimension of models and policy processes. Still, the underlying top-down approach of SD as a Source: Adapted from [99].…”

Impact Assessment of the Renewable Energy Policy Scenarios – a Case Study of Latvia

“…The necessary data has been collected from statistical sources, scientific literature, and publicly available reports. A more detailed description of the developed SD model can be found in the authors' previous research [23]- [27]. The developed SD model is a comprehensive tool for the energy sector in Latvia that interconnects modeling of the related systems into the consistent structure.…”