Delimiting rockfall runout zones using reach probability values simulated with a Monte-Carlo based 3D trajectory model

Dorren, Luuk; Berger, Frédéric; Bourrier, Franck; Eckert, Nicolas; Saroglou, Charalampos; Schwarz, Massimiliano; Stoffel, Markus; Trappmann, Daniel; Utelli, Hans-Heini; Moos, Christine

doi:10.5194/nhess-2022-32

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 46 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Reach probability is the percentage of blocks that reach a distance from the RF source cliff. A simple calculation can be conducted by dividing the number of blocks that passed through a given distance by the total number of falling blocks [56]. This is typically used to determine the RF runout zone, which represents the area where blocks are likely to stabilize after they have fallen from the cliff.…”

Section: Reach Probability-p (Xj|mi)mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comprehensive Approach to Quantitative Risk Assessment of Rockfalls on Buildings Using 3D Model of Rockfall Runout

Al-Shaar,

Gerard,

Faour

et al. 2024

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Rockfalls are incidents of nature that take place when rocks or boulders break from a steep slope and fall to the ground. They can pose considerable threats to buildings placed in high-risk zones. Despite the fact that the impact of a rockfall on a building can cause structural and non-structural damage, few studies have been undertaken to investigate the danger associated with this event. Most of these studies indicated that the risk resulting from rockfall hazards is hard to forecast and assess. A comprehensive quantitative risk assessment approach for rockfalls on buildings is developed and described in this paper and applied for the Mtein village in Mount Lebanon. This method employs a 3D model to simulate the rockfall trajectories using a combination of digital elevation data, field surveys, and orthorectified aerial photographs. The spatial and temporal probability of rockfalls were evaluated using the analysis of historical data in two triggering-factor scenarios: earthquake and precipitation. The findings show that, during the period of 1472 years between the years 551 (the first observed large earthquake in Lebanon) and the current year of the study (2023), the temporal probability will potentially be equal to 0.002 and 0.105 in the cases of earthquake- and rainfall-triggered rockfalls, respectively, while the maximal damage values are expected to be 232 USD and 10,511 USD per year, respectively. The end result is a final map presenting the risk values assigned to each building that could be damaged by rockfalls.

show abstract

Section: Reach Probability-p (Xj|mi)mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comprehensive Approach to Quantitative Risk Assessment of Rockfalls on Buildings Using 3D Model of Rockfall Runout

Al-Shaar,

Gerard,

Faour

et al. 2024

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

A scenario-based approach for immediate post-earthquake rockfall impact assessment

Alvioli,

Poggi,

Peresan

et al. 2023

Landslides

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Different approaches exist to describe the seismic triggering of rockfalls. Statistical approaches rely on the analysis of local terrain properties and their empirical correlation with observed rockfalls. Conversely, deterministic, or physically based approaches, rely on the modeling of individual trajectories of boulders set in motion by seismic shaking. They require different data and allow various interpretations and applications of their results. Here, we present a new method for earthquake-triggered rockfall scenario assessment adopting ground shaking estimates, produced in near real-time by a seismological monitoring network. Its key inputs are the locations of likely initiation points of rockfall trajectories, namely, rockfall sources, obtained by statistical analysis of digital topography. In the model, ground shaking maps corresponding to a specific earthquake suppress the probability of activation of sources at locations with low ground shaking while enhancing that in areas close to the epicenter. Rockfall trajectories are calculated from the probabilistic source map by three-dimensional kinematic modeling using the software STONE. We apply the method to the 1976 MI = 6.5 Friuli earthquake, for which an inventory of seismically-triggered rockfalls exists. We suggest that using peak ground acceleration as a modulating parameter to suppress/enhance rockfall source probability, the model reasonably reproduces observations. Results allow a preliminary impact evaluation before field observations become available. We suggest that the framework may be suitable for rapid rockfall impact assessment as soon as ground-shaking estimates (empirical or numerical models) are available after a seismic event.

show abstract

Vers une nouvelle approche quantitative pour l’évaluation de l’aléa de chute de blocs

Rossignol,

Martin,

Bourrier

2024

Rev. Fr. Geotech.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

L’évaluation de l’aléa de chute de blocs constitue un défi majeur pour les territoires de montagne. Le changement climatique et l’évolution de l’urbanisation ne cessent de modifier profondément notre rapport à l’aléa rocheux et augmentent significativement le nombre d’enjeux exposés. Une quantification précise de cet aléa est donc nécessaire afin d’assurer une gestion adaptée du risque. Toutefois, la complexité du phénomène et la multiplicité des paramètres réels rendent la réalisation d’une telle quantification particulièrement délicate. Dans cet article, nous introduisons une approche quantitative originale s’appuyant sur une formalisation probabiliste et permettant de quantifier précisément l’aléa résultant en combinant plusieurs probabilités intermédiaires. Une application méthodologique en contexte opérationnel est proposée afin d’en montrer le potentiel d’utilisation. Les hypothèses, critères d’approximation et effets liés aux données utilisées font l’objet d’une discussion pour une mise en S100perspective avec les pratiques actuelles. Nous illustrons également l’approche à travers deux exemples, dont un appliqué au cas du Saint-Eynard dans les Alpes françaises.

show abstract

Delimiting rockfall runout zones using reach probability values simulated with a Monte-Carlo based 3D trajectory model

Cited by 4 publications

References 46 publications

A Comprehensive Approach to Quantitative Risk Assessment of Rockfalls on Buildings Using 3D Model of Rockfall Runout

A Comprehensive Approach to Quantitative Risk Assessment of Rockfalls on Buildings Using 3D Model of Rockfall Runout

A scenario-based approach for immediate post-earthquake rockfall impact assessment

Vers une nouvelle approche quantitative pour l’évaluation de l’aléa de chute de blocs

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About