Demographic and Built Environment Predictors of Public Transportation Retention and Work-from-Home Changes in Small- to Medium-Sized Massachusetts Cities, 2011–2021

Abstract

Transportation uses substantial energy and is a significant household expense in the United States; public transportation and working from home present opportunities to reduce energy use and increase household affordability. However, during COVID-19, transportation systems reduced service, and nationwide, public transportation use has been declining. Focusing on six small-to-medium-sized “Gateway Cities” in Massachusetts—more affordable cities with lower-than-state-average median income and lower-than-state-average education—that have regional transit systems and are within Boston’s commuter rail area, we analyzed the changes in public transit ridership and work from home. We estimated linear and hierarchical linear regression models to understand the association between demographics and built environment and lower emission modes to work between 2011 and 2021. We used GIS to visualize the distribution of public transit ridership and work from home over time and space. We found that the block groups in our sample retained public transit users over the study period and saw increases in working from home. Across all cities, transit ridership was more likely to increase in block groups with higher accessibility to jobs and more frequent transportation to those jobs; work-from-home was more likely to increase in block groups with a lower percentage of Hispanic residents and lower rent burden. We found that most block groups either saw an increase in ridership or working from home, suggesting that work from home and public transit users are spatially segmented groups.