Derivative Analysis of Global Average Temperatures

Abstract

Contemporary climate studies are quite numerous, and the topic in general has become politically charged, where opposing political interests have generated juxtaposed studies with contradictory results despite near unanimous acceptance of the fact the planet is warning.  One emotionally charged issue is whether the increase is man-made or naturally occurring.  This study avoids political pitfalls and controversial postulations, instead seeking to add to the literature a mathematical catastrophe analysis based on derivative modelling and extrapolation to deduce whether an unexpected (sudden) rise or fall in dynamic global atmospheric temperatures (e.g. an ice age) is predicted by the dynamic atmospheric temperature data.  The study concludes that extrapolations of a derivative model encounter an unstable equilibrium point at the end of this century leading to a prediction of the potential for a sudden, dramatic increase in global average temperatures. The author takes care not to make controversial predictions, instead merely follows the mathematical facts where they lead:  The potential for a catastrophe if the unnamed causes of global temperature increases remain unaddressed.