Describing and Predicting COVID19 Evolution Using Pandemic Equation

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic evolution is accurately described by the new Pandemic Equation, which is the generalized rate equation describing the pandemic curve flattening and accounting for the mitigation measures, such as the introduction or removal of the quarantine, and for the effect of vaccination or drugs, when and if introduced. The Pandemic Equation model allows for an easy parameter extraction amenable to training Artificial Intelligence model for the automatic parameter extraction. The predictive capabilities of the Pandemic Equation are based on the parameter ranges extracted from multiple localities with well advanced pandemic evolution correlated with the mitigation measures.