Designing Decisions in the Unknown: A Generative Model

Abstract

This study examines how design theory enables to extend decision-making logic to the 'unknown,' which often appears as the strange territory beyond the rationality of the decision-maker. We contribute to the foundations of management by making the unknown an actionable notion for the decision-maker. To this end, we build on the pioneering works in 'managing in the unknown' and on design theory to systematically characterize rational forms of action in the unknown. We show that action consists of designing decisions in the unknown and can be organized on the basis of the notion of a 'decision-driven design path,' which is not yet a decision but helps to organize the generation of a better decision-making situation. Our decision-design model allows us to identify four archetypes of decision-driven design paths. They enable us to discuss the variety of known organizational forms that managers can rely on to explore the unknown.Additional supporting information may be found in the online version of this article at the publisher's website.

Designing alternatives in decision problems

“…From a general point of view the literature in the most recent years remains focussed on either exploring the Pareto frontier of some multi-objective problem (see [68] or [69]) or trying to establish a more general perspective (see [22], [37], [48], [62], [64]). However, the only attempts to create a "general theory" result in two previous papers of the authors (see [12] and [13]) and the more recent contribution of the design theory group ( [28], [29], [39]) and their applications ( [52]).…”

Mixing Oil with Water: Framing and Theorizing in Management Research Informed by Design Science

“…This selection process resulted in 28 initial sources [8][9][10][11][12]. In several instances, the selected publication appeared to be part of a larger research program, implying we also reviewed various (preceding or subsequent) publications connected to the initial source.…”

“…DS approaches have thus been emerging in engineering [2], information systems [3,4], organization and management studies [5,6] and entrepreneurship research [7]. As a result, a growing number of scholars have been applying DS methods (e.g., [8][9][10][11][12]). Simon's initial conception of DS was severely criticized [13][14][15] and, therefore, DS has further developed in highly different ways [2][3][4][5][6][14][15][16][17]]-which suggests Simon's initial idea of DS primarily operates as a metaphor that can be used and molded in many directions.…”

A Model of the Innovative Purpose for Responsible Innovation: Towards Design-Based Corporate Governance

“…In this respect, the challenge is to ensure that it has the right features, to enable it to provide the decision-maker, whoever he may be, with the resources to anticipate the decisions that will have to be taken for the future of the company. In the outline of the following model, a formal representation of decision situation will be carried out using Wald's analytical framework under uncertainty (Wald, 1950) and then within an extended generative perspective (Le Masson et al, 2019). I will help to understand how purpose can play a role in these decision-making processes by modelling how a that leads to the design and the subsequent action on decision-making situations.…”

“…Besides, the work on uncertainty reduction, which has largely occupied decision theorists ({Citation}), on a design perspective, Le Masson et al (2019) have been able to demonstrate the existence of a possible extension of the decision-making situation, using design theories. This theoretical intuition was then confirmed and tested in operational decision-making situations in the world of aeronautical equipment (see Le Glatin, 2018).…”