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The current study was carried out to estimate the risk of disease probability from the consumption of foods such as meats, poultry, unpasteurized cheeses, fruit-based drinks, ready-to-eat fruits, and typical preparations such as Encebollado, ceviche, and Bolón de Verde contaminated with Salmonella, Escherichia coli and Listeria monocytogenes in Ecuador using a quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA). A first-order Monte Carlo simulation probabilistic distribution approach was adopted to assess the occurrence of pathogens in the tested foods. The scenario was simulated using the concentration levels concerning the contaminant and food consumption obtained through an online survey with a sample size of 202 people. A model (100,000 iterations) was run and created in an Excel spreadsheet using @Risk software. The results obtained are the risk of infection (possibilities of becoming infected by eating the food evaluated) and the contaminant dose per portion consumed. Additionally, an exponential model with a single dose was used for risk characterization to determine the probability of becoming ill from contaminated food. The QMRA model performed a prediction for the mean risk of Salmonella infection from ground beef consumption of 1.33 E - 04 log 10 cfu / serving, while the exponential model estimated a value of 1.0 log cfu - serving. In the case of Listeria monocytogenes, the QMRA estimated an average probability of infection in unpasteurized fresh cheese of 5.9E-05 compared to the average disease risk estimated in the risk characterization for L. monocytogenes of 9.50E-13. The QMRA estimated an average risk of infection by E. coli for Encebollado and ceviches of 5.6E -03 compared to the average risk of disease estimated in the risk characterization for Escherichia coli of 0.387 log cfu -ration. These results suggest the need to adopt effective mitigation strategies. Control parameters such as temperature during the supply chain and good hygiene practices during manufacturing can effectively control food-associated pathogens. More data is necessary toimprove the evaluation of the risk developed. Keywords: Microbiological risk análisis, Infectious biological agents (Salmonella, Listeria monocytogenes, Escherichia coli), QMRA (Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment), Typical foods in Ecuador, Population food consumption in three main cities of Ecuador.
The current study was carried out to estimate the risk of disease probability from the consumption of foods such as meats, poultry, unpasteurized cheeses, fruit-based drinks, ready-to-eat fruits, and typical preparations such as Encebollado, ceviche, and Bolón de Verde contaminated with Salmonella, Escherichia coli and Listeria monocytogenes in Ecuador using a quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA). A first-order Monte Carlo simulation probabilistic distribution approach was adopted to assess the occurrence of pathogens in the tested foods. The scenario was simulated using the concentration levels concerning the contaminant and food consumption obtained through an online survey with a sample size of 202 people. A model (100,000 iterations) was run and created in an Excel spreadsheet using @Risk software. The results obtained are the risk of infection (possibilities of becoming infected by eating the food evaluated) and the contaminant dose per portion consumed. Additionally, an exponential model with a single dose was used for risk characterization to determine the probability of becoming ill from contaminated food. The QMRA model performed a prediction for the mean risk of Salmonella infection from ground beef consumption of 1.33 E - 04 log 10 cfu / serving, while the exponential model estimated a value of 1.0 log cfu - serving. In the case of Listeria monocytogenes, the QMRA estimated an average probability of infection in unpasteurized fresh cheese of 5.9E-05 compared to the average disease risk estimated in the risk characterization for L. monocytogenes of 9.50E-13. The QMRA estimated an average risk of infection by E. coli for Encebollado and ceviches of 5.6E -03 compared to the average risk of disease estimated in the risk characterization for Escherichia coli of 0.387 log cfu -ration. These results suggest the need to adopt effective mitigation strategies. Control parameters such as temperature during the supply chain and good hygiene practices during manufacturing can effectively control food-associated pathogens. More data is necessary toimprove the evaluation of the risk developed. Keywords: Microbiological risk análisis, Infectious biological agents (Salmonella, Listeria monocytogenes, Escherichia coli), QMRA (Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment), Typical foods in Ecuador, Population food consumption in three main cities of Ecuador.
Consumption of contaminated food causes 600 million cases, including 420,000 of fatal infections every year. Estimated cost from food-borne illnesses is USD 110 billion per year, which is an economic burden to low- and middle-income countries. Thailand is a leading producer and consumer of seafood, but little is known about bacterial contamination in seafood. In particular, public health agencies need to know the relationship between Salmonella contamination in seafood and risk factors, as assessed with readily available culture-dependent and bacterial phenotyping methods. To address this, levels of indicator bacteria, Salmonella and Vibrio in various seafood products were determined to identify risk factors associated with Salmonella contamination. A total of 335 samples were collected from October 2018 to July 2019 at seafood markets throughout Bangkok, Thailand; overall sample composition was Pacific white shrimp (n = 85), oysters (n = 82), blood cockles (n = 84), and Asian seabass (n = 84). Prevalence was 100% for fecal coliforms and 85% for E. coli. In contrast, prevalence was 59% for V. parahaemolyticus, 49% for V. cholerae, 19% for V. alginolyticus, 18% for V. vulnificus, and 36% for Salmonella. Highest concentrations of fecal coliforms and E. coli were in oysters. Highest concentrations of Salmonella with Matopeni (31%) being the predominant serotype were in shrimp. Salmonella contamination was significantly associated with type of seafood, sampling location, retail conditions, and the presence of E. coli, V. alginolyticus and V. vulnificus. A cutoff value for E. coli concentration of 1.3 × 104 MPN/g predicted contamination of Salmonella, with a sensitivity of 84% and specificity of 61%. Displaying seafood products on ice, presence of E. coli and Vibrio, and seafood derived from Eastern Thailand were associated with an increased risk of Salmonella contamination.
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