Detection of future changes in trends and scaling exponents in extreme short-term rainfall at selected stations in Slovakia

Abstract

This paper analyses projected changes in short-term rainfall events during the warm season (April – October) in an ensemble of 30 regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The analysis of trend changes and changes in scaling exponents was done for the Hurbanovo, Bratislava, Oravská Lesná, and Myjava stations in Slovakia. The characteristics of maximum rainfall events were analysed for two scenario periods, one past and one future (1960–2000 and 2070–2100) and compared to the characteristics of the actual observed events. The main findings from the analysis show that 60-min short-term events for most of the RCM simulations will either increase or remain constant. On the other hand, the depths and intensities of daily events are projected to increase significantly; in some cases they were found to be ten times larger. Trends in future events at the Hurbanovo station were found to be insignificant. In the other stations positive trends in future rainfall events prevail, except for daily rainfall at the Myjava station, which shows a negative trend. Using results from the selected simulations, the scaling exponents estimated are on average lower than the exponents of the data observed. On the other hand, due to the higher daily precipitation amounts in the future seen to all the scenarios, the downscaled values of short-term rainfall at all the stations analysed might be considerably higher in the future horizons, which could subsequently affect future design rainfall values for engineering designs.

Degradation of traditional vineyards in Slovakia by abandonment and soil erosion: A case‐study of Vráble

“…Higher erosion rates could be attributed to changes in climate, as while overall precipitation have remained the same, extreme rainfall events occur more frequently in this region (Kohnová et al, 2018;Repel et al, 2020). The issue of climate change and its effect on vineyard erosion has been raised in many previous studies (Biddoccu et al, 2015;Eccel et al, 2016;Martı ́nez-Casasnovas et al, 2002;Serpa et al, 2017).…”

“…To evaluate the accuracy, we also established control measurements on a plot located on a flat area. Over the last decade, the intensity of rainfall‐driven erosion events has increased (Kohnová et al, 2018; Repel et al, 2020). Therefore, we replicated our measurements on experimental fields and the control plot to determine differences in erosion intensity and verify the accuracy of pole height method.…”

Comparison of Tests for Trend in Location and Scaleparameters in Hydrological and Precipitation Time Series

“…Group 1 Tests for monotonic trends in the parameter of location: the Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the test based on the Spearman's rho (S), and the Cox-Stuart (CS) test (Mann 1945, Kendall 1938, Cox and Stuart 1955. The MK test was used in a huge number of studies, examples of which are Hirsch et al (1982), Młyński et al (2019), Nowak et al (2019), Jeneiova et al (2014, Kohnová et al (2018), Meresa et al (2017). The examples for the CS test in hydrology are Fatichi et al (2009), Sen and Niedzielski (2010), Kosek (2011), Rutkowska (2015).…”

Effects of Cerrado restoration on seasonal soil hydrological properties and insights on impacts of deforestation and climate change scenarios

“…Change in rainfall patterns (amount, intensity, and frequency) and other forms of precipitation is one of the most critical factors determining the overall impact of climate change on different regions (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [FAO], 2015; World Meteorological Organization [WMO], 2020). Evidence has shown that wet regions are likely to get wetter (Kumar et al, 2013), but details on how much wetter, and the impacts of this on a local scale, are more difficult to ascertain (Kohnová et al, 2018). Less than 10% of the Cerrado region is protected (Françoso et al, 2015); because of agribusiness, approximately half of the area has been converted into crops and pasturelands (Colli et al, 2020).…”