Determining the willingness to link climate and trade policy

Abstract

Analysts have long advocated a linkage between international cooperation on climate change and trade measures, such as border tariffs. While the theoretical case for linkage has been clear, it has remained difficult to evaluate whether real world efforts to link these two domains will yield beneficial effects to international cooperation. Working with a large sample of climate experts, we elicited how the legitimacy and usefulness of linking trade and climate are assessed along with the risks that may arise. We find that experts from richer countries, especially Europe, are more likely to see linkage as legitimate and effective. A surprisingly robust finding is that experts who perceive their home country's emissions reduction pledge as ambitious are more likely to see risks from using trade measures. Experts seem to be increasingly aware of the dissonance between the voluntarism of the Paris Agreement and growing political pressures to apply trade measures.