Deterring Space War: An Exploratory Analysis Incorporating Prospect Theory into a Game Theoretic Model of Space Warfare

Abstract

For more information on this publication, visit http://www.rand.org/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD400.html Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. R® is a registered trademark Limited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html.The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest.RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org iii AbstractIf outer space becomes an active theater of war, the impact to daily life on earth would be substantial. Unintended consequences of attacks in space are hard to contain and are not always readily reversible-debris or radiation generating attacks render specific orbits unusable, not just for the duration of the war, but for the foreseeable future. With the loss of those orbits, our lives would be very different-accurate weather maps, overhead imagery, access to breaking international news, and navigation services that guide our cars, airplanes, and ships would all disappear. Even in the absence of catastrophic attacks, war in space would have a chilling effect on commercial uses. Deploying new capability in space is risky, and war would make it infinitely more so. Space entrepreneurship would grind to a halt, denying mankind capabilities we have yet to dream of.In this dissertation, I use a game theoretic model of space war to examine how sentiments in multiple dimensions impact state decisions regarding whether to expand a ground war into the space domain. Key innovations of this model are a) the use of prospect theory in lieu of rational choice and b) the assumption of non-unitary actors with independent sentiments regarding different dimensions of national interests. I offer a new way to visualize and think about how sentiment impacts the ability to tailor a deterrence strategy to specific circumstances. These innovations enable a rich exploration of how space war might play out across a wide range of futures. Based on that exploration, I recommend specific steps spacefaring nations should take to robustly deter the expansion of wars into the space domain. My recommendations are applicable across a wide range of opponent capabilities and sentiments under bo...

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“…See What we just described is only an introduction to the game to provide readers an understanding of its capabilities and limitations. More-thorough descriptions, including the mathematical equations that the game solves for, are documented in Triezenberg (2017) and Torrington et al (2019) and are not repeated here. Significant changes to parallelize the game, undertaken since those reports were written, are documented in Appendix B.…”

“…47, No. 2, March 1979, or Triezenberg, 2017, for a more detailed description of prospect theory. logic model for the destabilizing effect of weapons build-up.…”

“…This means that the effect of a loss of 10 percent of military capability for one day is equal to the loss of 1 percent of military capability for ten days. The mathematical equations solved are documented in Triezenberg (2017) but are repeated in the numbered list for reference. Detailed rationales for why the math is structured as it is are provided in Triezenberg (2017) Perfect knowledge of own game truth 1.…”

“…The mathematical equations solved are documented in Triezenberg (2017) but are repeated in the numbered list for reference. Detailed rationales for why the math is structured as it is are provided in Triezenberg (2017) Perfect knowledge of own game truth 1. Players seek to maximize the integral of the M capability of their own space assets over time (t, where T G = game duration).…”

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“…Researchers from the RAND Corporation have noticed the relevance of outer space in incoming conflicts (Triezenberg, 2017). Although there is no official information about the militarization of outer space, this process has lasted for several decades.…”