Development and validation of a new model for the early diagnosis of tuberculous meningitis in adults based on simple clinical and laboratory parameters

Abstract

Background The differential diagnosis between tuberculous meningitis (TBM) and viral meningitis (VM) or bacterial meningitis (BM) remains challenging in clinical practice, particularly in resource-limited settings. This study aimed to establish a diagnostic model that can accurately and early distinguish TBM from both VM and BM in adults based on simple clinical and laboratory parameters. Methods Patients diagnosed with TBM or non-TBM (VM or BM) between January 2012 and October 2021 were retrospectively enrolled from the General Hospital (derivation cohort) and Branch Hospital (validation cohort) of Ningxia Medical University. Demographic characteristics, clinical symptoms, concomitant diseases, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) parameters were collated. Univariable logistic analysis was performed in the derivation cohort to identify significant variables (P < 0.05). A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed using these variables. We verified the performance including discrimination, calibration, and applicability of the model in both derivation and validation cohorts. Results A total of 222 patients (70 TBM and 152 non-TBM [75 BM and 77 VM]) and 100 patients (32 TBM and 68 non-TBM [31 BM and 37 VM]) were enrolled as derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The multivariable logistic regression model showed that disturbance of consciousness for > 5 days, weight loss > 5% of the original weight within 6 months, CSF lymphocyte ratio > 50%, CSF glucose concentration < 2.2 mmol/L, and secondary cerebral infarction were independently correlated with the diagnosis of TBM (P < 0.05). The nomogram model showed excellent discrimination (area under the curve 0.959 vs. 0.962) and great calibration (P-value in the Hosmer–Lemeshow test 0.128 vs. 0.863) in both derivation and validation cohorts. Clinical decision curve analysis showed that the model had good applicability in clinical practice and may benefit the entire population. Conclusions This multivariable diagnostic model may help clinicians in the early discrimination of TBM from VM and BM in adults based on simple clinical and laboratory parameters.